Where Things Stand on Game Day
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NASHUA - All indications point to another day of massive turnout. It'll be cloudy but dry across most of the state, with temperatures hanging around 50 degrees. Secretary of State Bill Gardner is projecting turnout of 500,000, just under 50% of the state's entire population.
For what it's worth, the first votes have already been cast up in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location:
Dixville Notch
Democrats: Obama 7, Edwards 2, Richardson 1, Clinton 0
Republicans: McCain 4, Romney 2, Giuliani 1
Hart's Location
Democrats: Obama 9, Clinton 3, Edwards 1
Republicans: McCain 6, Huckabee 5, Paul 4, Romney 1
After a remarkable final day of campaigning that began with an Ed Muskie moment and concluded with hecklers and a smack down of Barack Obama, the Clinton campaign is bracing for a loss - perhaps a big one. They're hoping it won't be worse than Iowa's nine point loss, but there are indications it very well could be. Either way, Clinton will continue on, and the speculation is already underway about what kind of staff, message, and strategy shake ups will take place moving forward.
For the Republicans, the McCain folks are feeling cautiously optimistic, but still concerned that Romney is close enough to eke out a win if his folks turn out and enough Independents swing toward Obama. In many ways it's deja vu: on caucus day in Iowa Romney trailed Huckabee by 3.0 in the RCP Average, but the consensus was that his ground game would make up the difference. The Romney folks turned out their vote, but Huckabee obviously overwhelmed Romney with the surge in evangelical voters.
This time, however, the sense is that it will in fact be a close race. The problem for Romney is this: he has a core of committed supporters that will get him roughly 30% of the vote, but does he have enough appeal to generate the additional couple of points he will need to beat McCain? We won't know until later tonight.
Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee is poised for a distant but respectable third place finish which, coupled with new polls showing him bouncing in South Carolina, should have Huckabee leaving the Granite State feeling pretty good.
For the candidates and the press, election days are the worst. After a frenzied sprint to the finish line, the final day always has a "hurry up and wait" feeling to it. The campaigns have all done as much as they can do. Now, it's up to the people of New Hampshire.

