NASHUA - It's just over twenty-four hours until the polls open here in New Hamsphire. If you want to understand how wide open the Republican race is and what an important role the Granite State plays this year, consider the fine line between victory and defeat tomorrow: If John McCain wins he will immediately be in the catbird's seat to go on and potentially win the nomination. If he loses - especially by a decisive margin - McCain is probably finished.

The same is true of Mitt Romney. If he can eke out a win here it will breathe life back into his campaign, give him the momentum to carry on through February 5 and bring his personal fortune back into play as a major factor in the race. If he loses, however, he's probably finished as well.

Things are not quite as dire for Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side. No one doubts that if she loses here tomorrow she'll continue on. But a second straight loss to the upstart Obama would put her campaign even more on the ropes than it currently is, and the longer she goes without beating him the more difficult it becomes politically to explain why she's the more viable, more electable general election candidate.

The sense on the ground here is that Clinton is indeed going to lose to Obama again tomorrow, and whispers have begun that it may be by a larger margin than her 9 point defeat last week. The polls are clearly starting to reflect a break toward Obama. If that trend continues, and if the turnout is along the lines of what we saw in Iowa, he could very well trounce Clinton by double digits tomorrow and finish over the 40% mark. That would be another remarkable show of strength for Obama in a three way race against two very tough, able competitors.

Shifting back to the Repubicans, it appears John McCain is maintaining his mojo. There's been a lot of speculation about Independents shifting to the Democratic primary causing a deflation of his numbers, but so far the polls don't appear to be bearing that out: McCain is leading in seven out of the eight most recent polls by margins ranging from two to fourteen points. Overall, he leads by nearly 6 points in the RCP Average, and he's the heavy betting favorite on Intrade.

If there is going to be any late shift in this race, we should expect to start getting a sense of it today, as many voters in New Hampshire spent the weekend attending rallies and getting a last close up view of the candidates.

Meanwhile, the candidates themselves are all making one last mad dash through the state, something that's infinitely easier here than in Iowa. There's a definite feeling this morning that we're headed toward the crescendo, and for Romney and McCain, right now tomorrow is all that matters.