The Iowa Effect

It's the morning after the morning after, and scanning headlines from papers around the country you can clearly see the effect the results in Iowa are having on the race. The Iowa effect is largely a media created phenomenon, but the narratives are strikingly powerful: on one hand Obama is "flying high" and "riding momentum," on the other Clinton is "scrambling" to retool and "sharpening attacks."

Worse still for Clinton are front page stories in both the New York Times and the Washington Post detailing the backbiting and second guessing within the Clinton campaign over the strategy that produced a loss in Iowa. Patrick Healy and John Broder write:

One longtime adviser complained that the campaign's senior strategist, Mark Penn, realized too late that “change” was a much more powerful message than “experience.” Another adviser said Mr. Penn and Mr. Clinton were consumed with polling data for so long, they did not fully grasp the personality deficit that Mrs. Clinton had with voters.

Advisers said that both Clintons had miscalculated the endurance and depth of what they called “the Obama phenomenon.” They both believed that, in the final months of 2007, more voters would question whether Mr. Obama was ready to be president and more reporters would pick apart his political record and personal character. Now anger inside the campaign at the news media has hardened; Mr. Clinton, in particular, believes reporters will be complicit if Mr. Obama becomes the nominee and loses to a Republican.

Defeat may be an orphan, but that won't keep some from calling for a paternity test. Such recrimination and scapegoating is a standard part of political campaigns that suffer setbacks, but the narrative of a campaign at war with itself after a crushing defeat in Iowa poses a particular challenge for Clinton this year given she only has four days until the next contest.

But there are two pieces of good news for Clinton. The first is that while Iowa and New Hampshire are much closer together this year, the news cycle also moves at lightening speed these days (the Fieler Faster Principle), so it's possible the media will be over this story and onto something else more beneficial to her by Tuesday. The second piece of good news is part and parcel of the first: with a highly visible debate tonight Clinton has a chance to influence the media narrative about her campaign and to refocus it in a more positive way with a standout performance. The stakes in tonight's debate could hardly be higher for her.



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