What a difference a caucus makes. Tonight's dual-party debates at Saint Anselm's College in Manchester feature two fields that differ substantially from what they were in nearly every previous debate. Tonight will also differ greatly from previous debates in that there is a definite goal at the end: To win New Hampshire. Here's a quick preview at what each candidate needs to do, starting with the Republicans, who go first:
Mitt Romney: Romney's been using baseball analogies a lot lately, and although he argues that Iowa was just the first inning in a 50 inning ball game, it was in fact strike one. If he loses New Hampshire on Tuesday, it will be strike two and three. Romney has performed well in almost all the previous debates, but that won't cut it tonight. He needs to win convincingly, not just to win New Hampshire (which might or might not happen anyway), but to regain the momentum he had in the fall. But Romney is still far from a candidate who has nothing to lose. Look for Romney to go after John McCain, but perhaps not as hard as some might expect.
John McCain: McCain has hit his stride in the last month and he knows what's in store for him from Romney tonight, especially since Romney's been advertising it for most of the last week: Immigration, taxes, McCain-Feingold -- in short, all the reasons conservatives have a problem with him. There's not much McCain can say about his record, which is what it is. But what has worked well for McCain is his authenticity and his national-security bona fides. He can parry Romney's attacks with those two shields. New Hampshire is McCain's to lose, which means for the first time since early last year McCain is the frontrunner tonight.
Mike Huckabee: The latest New Hampshire polls don't show any bounce for Huckabee from his Iowa victory. This might actually be a good thing, since it takes some of the pressure off of Huckabee to win tonight. As he's done in the past, Huckabee will benefit from being seen as the nice guy while Romney and McCain batter away each other. But look for Huckabee to join McCain against Romney, if not as forcefully. Knocking Romney out of New Hampshire will make Huckabee's road to the nomination much easier.
Ron Paul: If Paul doesn't finish at least third in New Hampshire, the Revolution is all but over. He needs a big night tonight and make his case for his particular version of Republican libertarianism better than he ever has. Unlike some of the other debates, the moderators should give Paul plenty of opportunity to do so.
Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson: I put Fred and Rudy in the same category because neither are competing seriously in New Hampshire. Both should try to stand out in their ways, but they won't be in the middle of the McCain-Romney fight. For Rudy at least, it'll be interesting to see if he is able to capture attention when, for the first time, he's not the center of attention.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton: Much like Romney, Clinton needs to have a big night. A loss in New Hampshire would in many ways be worse than her loss in Iowa. She's not only closer to Obama in the polls than she was in Iowa, but this is also the part of the country which Hillary needs to show she can win. Much more than Romney, the attention will be on how Hillary handles her loss of frontrunner status. Her fumbling of the immigration question in October is still on the minds of the media and voters. So the needle Hillary needs to thread tonight is indeed a small one: Bring Obama down but not in a way that she looks unpresidential. Above all, she needs to win.
Barack Obama: How will Obama handle the onslaught? That's the question everyone is wondering. He's has enough momentum where he doesn't need to be the attack dog, but not enough of a lead where he doesn't need to respond forcefully when challenged, and counterattack. Obama's debate performances have never matched his soaring speeches, and a poor performance tonight could be all a few thousand New Hampshire Democrats need to make a decision. He needs to win just as much as Hillary.
John Edwards: Much like Huckabee with Romney, Edwards has a vested interest in knocking out Clinton. It's not secret either that the Edwards campaign wants a one-on-one with Obama, so look for Edwards, a brawler of a debater, to attack Clinton much more strongly than he will go after Obama. Also like Huckabee, Edwards won't win New Hampshire, but a second-place finish will keep him alive to the next round. A third-place finish will all but end his run. As the risk of sounding repetitive, Edwards need to win.
Bill Richardson: Richardson is dangerously close to the end. It's not his style to be the attack dog, but it's also no secret anymore that he's ready to back Obama over Clinton. How that might direct his performance tonight will be interesting to watch.
