DES MOINES - It's a been a long road to the Iowa caucuses, but they're finally here. Here are my sense of things sitting here in the Hawkeye State on caucus morning:

I'll be shocked if Barack Obama doesn't win. In fact, I think he's potentially sitting on a very big win. He seems to have upward momentum in the polls, his crowds are huge, and his message appears to still be connecting with voters and there is no indication that he's experiencing an erosion of support in the final hours of the campaign. In other words, all the signs are pointing to a strong finish for Obama.

As I've said before, that will open the door for him to run the table on Clinton in the early states, especially if she finishes third - which I think she might. I'm hesitant to underestimate the Clinton people or their organizing ability, but from what I can tell she has nowhere near the enthusiasm in her campaign or among her supporters to match Edwards or Obama.

The big question right now is turnout. Right now most campaigns are modeling off of something in the 150,000 range, which would be 20% higher than the largest caucus turnout in history. But some are speculating it could go even higher than that, though as Joe Trippi said in the interview last night, no one quite believes it will reach the 220,000 projected by the Des Moines Regiser poll.

Obama's campaign feels they will be competitive in any turnout scenario, and while they're unwilling to make any predictions about today, at last night's giant rally at Hoover High School in north Des Moines both David Plouffe and David Axelrod projected an air of quiet confidence. Axelrod was only willing to say they believe Obama will have a "very strong day" today, and David Plouffe said they were "sitting as well as we could possibly be" on the night before the caucus.

On the Republican side, the two-man race is literally a coin flip. My sense is the campaigns themselves believe it is so close it could go either way. Romney appears to have the better organization, but the polls say Huckabee has the more committed supporters. The question is whether the informal network of churches and homeschoolers will be enough to carry Huckabee through. There is no way of knowing until tonight.