Another Iowa Ad for Romney
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This time he's going after Huckabee:
Speaking of Huckabee, Jonathan Martin thinks Huck might have flubbed the Bhutto fallout.
Romney/McCain Ad War Continues
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A One Way Conversation
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Peter Nicholas of the LA Times reports that Hillary isn't taking any questions on her final "Time to Pick a President" tour of Iowa. What ever happened to "let's chat?"
The Daily 2008
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On this day in 1856 Woodrow Wilson is born in Staunton, Virginia. Also on this day in 1973 Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn published the first of his three-volume The Gulag Archipelago in the original Russian in France. On to today's top election stories:
"Candidates' Foreign Policy Views Take on Added Significance After Bhutto's Death" (Thomas Beaumont, Des Moines Register) Unexpected events like the assassination of Benazir Bhutto could have profound consequences on a presidential election. Or they might not. Will foreign-policy candidates like John McCain and Joe Biden benefit or will less experienced candidates like Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee? We'll know in a week.
"McCain and Giuliani Point to Pakistan" (Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post) John McCain and Rudy Giuliani used Bhutto's assassination to remind voters of their credentials in battling Islamist terrorism, even pointing out their rivals' lack of experience.
"Obama Aide Ties Pakistan to Iraq War'" (Jeff Zeleny, New York Times) Barack Obama saw the assassination in a different way, as top campaign aide David Axelrod told reporters yesterday. Bhutto's death, he said, was the result of the instability and loss of focus created by the Iraq war. He also tied Hillary Clinton's decision to authorize the war as an example of failed judgment.
"Obama Catches Clinton in N.H.; Iowa Remains a 3-way Contest" (Janet Hook, Los Angeles Times) A new LAT/Bloomberg poll shows Obama leading Clinton in New Hampshire by two points, while also showing that the race in Iowa is a tie between him, Clinton and John Edwards. In light of Bhutto's assassination, however, the poll also found that most respondents consider Clinton better equipped to protect the country.
"Guiliani, Huckabee Battle in Florida" (Roberto Santiago, Phil Long, and Andres Amerikaner, Miami Herald) Both Giuliani and Huckabee campaigned in Florida yesterday, where the RCP Average shows a statistical tie between them. The state is important for Giuliani, who hopes to start a surge of primary victories there on Jan. 29 leading to Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. If Rudy can pull off a win there, it might stunt whatever momentum Huckabee gets from victories in Iowa and South Carolina.
"Cashing In From the Outside" (Brody Mullins, Wall Street Journal) Independent groups, which can receive unlimited donations, have already spent $4 million on ads in Iowa, which, due to regulations, are more often than not attack ads. As John Edwards has discovered, the support of an outside group isn't always helpful.
"Seeing New Possibilities in Iowa, McCain Boosts His Effort" (Sasha Issenberg, Boston Globe) It's the story of the week: Thanks to rising poll numbers, John McCain is competing in Iowa, if not for first, than for a strong third to give him some momentum going into New Hampshire. According to reporter Issenberg, McCain aides speculate that as few as 2,000 votes could separate fifth place from third in Iowa.
"Romney Makes Closing Argument in N.H." (Glen Johnson, Associated Press) Before heading for Iowa for some last minute campaigning, Mitt Romney made his final appeal to New Hampshire voters. Emphasizing his background and business experience, Romney contrasted his resume with unnamed rivals, Huckabee and McCain.
"Edwards Reaches New Heights in Iowa" (David Paul Kuhn, The Politico) Much like McCain in New Hampshire, Edwards is experiencing a flush of hope in a must-win state. A victory there for Edwards could upend both Obama's and Clinton's campaigns -- not a bad feat for a candidate many had written off a few months ago.
Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.
Ad War: Romney vs. McCain
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The ad war between Mitt Romney and John McCain is heating up in New Hampshire, with both candidates releasing new spots this morning. Here they are, starting with Romney's ad, titled "Future":
McCain's new ad is titled "Endorsed" which isn't available on YouTube yet but can be viewed on the McCain campaign web site here.
UPDATE: Here it is:
What the newspapers are saying about Bhutto
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Yesterday we heard statements from the presidential candidates on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister of Pakistan. Today, the major newspapers around the country have weighed in, and here are the varying takes on the tragedy:
"Elections...and a restored democracy remain the best way for the centrist majority in Pakistan to rally against the forces of extremism that yesterday realized a great, though despicable, victory" (Washington Post).
"The United States cannot afford to have Pakistan unravel any further. The lesson of the last six years is that authoritarian leaders -- even ones backed with billions in American aid -- don't make reliable allies, and they can't guarantee security" (New York Times).
Bhutto "wasn't just the leader of her party, the Pakistan People's Party. She was the PPP. She leaves no obvious political heir. With her death, the most progressive voice in Pakistani politics is gone" (Chicago Tribune).
Bhutto's assassination "provided a stark reminder that, despite the improved military situation in Iraq, the future of the War on Terror remains a critical, if not overriding, issue facing the US electorate." (New York Post)
The assassination is a "serious blow to President Pervez Musharraf. ...it denies him a counterpart from the democratic side of Pakistani politics with whom he can do business" (Baltimore Sun).
"Bhutto's murder is a desolating reminder that the people of Pakistan have not had the government they deserve or the leaders they need" (Boston Globe).
"Also a casualty was the Bush administration's foreign policy, which had placed its hopes for stability in Pakistan on a political marriage of convenience between Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf" (Philadelphia Inquirer).
Bhutto "is dead. And with her may also go the world's hopes for stability in Pakistan" (San Francisco Chronicle).
Bhutto's "assassination threatens to set in motion a chain of events whose end could be any of a number of very grim scenarios" (Washington Times).
It "is likely to prompt calls for a wholesale review of U.S. policy toward a country crucial to regional stability and the war on terrorism. Such a review is overdue" (Dallas Morning News).
"Her murder reinforces the notion of Pakistan as it exists now, a test between the raw power of the state versus a swirling mass of insurgent groups and terrorists" (Seattle Times).
Chatter in the Blogosphere
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2008 is just around the corner, and Iowa will soon be upon us. Check out RealClearBlogs for all of the latest from around the blogosphere. Here are this morning's headlines:
To The Wire: Are Democrats tied in New Hampshire and Iowa?
Crassidates: Should presidential candidates spin Bhutto's assassination?
After Bhutto: What's next for Pakistan?
Why Not Biden?
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One would think that a crisis abroad, such as the one that erupted in Pakistan yesterday with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, would benefit '08 presidential candidates possessing the most well established foreign policy credentials - if it had any effect on the race at all. And while that seems to be true on the Republican side with most observers suggesting the news may marginally boost John McCain, the same is not true for the Democrats.
As Steven wrote yesterday, the consensus seems to be that to the degree the Bhutto assassination has any effect at all it will work in Hillary Clinton's favor. One name conspicuously missing from the discussion is Joe Biden, who probably has more real experience in the foreign policy workings of the United States government than all the other Democrats running for president combined.
Indeed, Clinton's "closing argument" in Iowa - we live in serious times that demand a person with enough experience to step into the White House and lead from day one - is in many ways an effective argument in favor of Joe Biden. Yet despite repeated (and ongoing) talk of Biden being a "sleeper" and a "dark horse" in Iowa, he continues to languish in the polls showing little if any upward momentum.
Biden must be frustrated that Democratic voters indicate that they value experience but appear to be grading on a curve. As Patrick Healy of the New York Times pointed out earlier this week, Hillary Clinton is seen by voters as possessing a tremendous amount of experience, though in reality her experience in the White House was very limited, especially on matters of national security and foreign policy.
Clearly the perception of Clinton is enhanced by the relative comparison with her two main rivals: both of whom have zero national security/foreign policy experience and have served a combined 9 years in the Senate.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden entered the Senate in 1972 at the age of thirty (13 years younger than Obama when he took office in 2004) and is the Chairman - and one of the longest serving members - of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Put simply, Biden has probably forgotten more about US foreign policy than the three most likely winners of Iowa know about the subject put together.
Politics Nation in Iowa
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RCP Associate Editor Reid Wilson touched down in Iowa this morning and will be on the ground covering the final days of the Iowa caucuses. Check out Politics Nation for Reid's latest dispatches.
How the Bhutto Assassination Could Affect the Race
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In presidential politics, the press tends to focus on the labors of the campaigns, as if those were the true determinants of electoral trends.
But, as the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan reminds us, candidates are at the mercy of events and it is those events that mostly determine political trends. If the economy turns south, the incumbent almost always suffers. And, during almost any foreign policy crisis - even one in which the President is partially responsible, as with the Bay of Pigs in 1961 - voters instinctively rally around the incumbent.
That, too, is likely to be the case here. And, with President Bush not on the ballot, the most senior figures in the race on either side of the aisle who may inherit that "rally round the flag" effect are Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Clinton, in fact, may benefit the most. Over the past two months, Barack Obama's surge has coincided with a shift in the Democratic campaign's focus from foreign policy issues - largely centering on the Iraq War- to domestic issues. Now, with a renewed focus on foreign affairs in the days before the Iowa caucus, voters may put a heavier premium on experience, which could hurt him.
Then, again, a week is a long time in the accelerated age of the internet. It remains to be seen whether this story is able to dominate the news until Iowa, whether it fades, or whether something else takes its place.
To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/

