In presidential politics, the press tends to focus on the labors of the campaigns, as if those were the true determinants of electoral trends.

But, as the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan reminds us, candidates are at the mercy of events and it is those events that mostly determine political trends. If the economy turns south, the incumbent almost always suffers. And, during almost any foreign policy crisis - even one in which the President is partially responsible, as with the Bay of Pigs in 1961 - voters instinctively rally around the incumbent.

That, too, is likely to be the case here. And, with President Bush not on the ballot, the most senior figures in the race on either side of the aisle who may inherit that "rally round the flag" effect are Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Clinton, in fact, may benefit the most. Over the past two months, Barack Obama's surge has coincided with a shift in the Democratic campaign's focus from foreign policy issues - largely centering on the Iraq War- ­ to domestic issues. Now, with a renewed focus on foreign affairs in the days before the Iowa caucus, voters may put a heavier premium on experience, which could hurt him.

Then, again, a week is a long time in the accelerated age of the internet. It remains to be seen whether this story is able to dominate the news until Iowa, whether it fades, or whether something else takes its place.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/