IA Poll: Obama Stays on Top

New ABC News/Washington Post poll of the Dem race in Iowa (Dec 13-17) showing Obama maintaining his four point lead over Clinton:

Obama 33 (+3 vs. last poll Nov 14-18)
Clinton 29 (+3)
Edwards 20 (-2)
Richardson 8 (-3)
Biden 4 (nc)

Obama leads by 3.5% in the RCP Average for Iowa.

Two other important notes from the poll: First, Obama seems to have improved his standing in some areas, but his support still seems more wobbly than the others. Among those who said they would "definitely support" one of the top three, Clinton improved her standing in the last month by 13 points to 70%, Edwards improved his standing by 10 points to 63%, and Obama ticked down a point finishing at 55%. Those numbers suggest that Obama still has work to do in the next two weeks closing the deal with Democratic caucusgoers who are inclined to support him but still harbor doubts.

The other important number from the poll is the "second choice" preference among those currently supporting one of the lower tier candidates (Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich) who is likely be fall below the 15% viability mark in some, if not all precincts. Again, John Edwards comes out on top as the top 2nd choice of these caucusgoers:

Edwards 41
Obama 29
Clinton 16
None 7
No Opinion 7

The net effect of second choice preferences makes the race: Obama 37, Clinton 31, Edwards 26.

Add all this up and you can see that it really is anyone's ballgame in Iowa right now between the top three. And while the caucus is two weeks away, we're only a few days from the race being frozen - at least temporarily - by the Christmas holiday.



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