There isn't much doubt that Barack Obama has surged and Hillary Clinton has stumbled over the past month or so. But the usual reasons given for the shift in the race's dynamics don't really account for the swing. The more voters see Hillary the less they like her? Well, maybe, though the polls don't really reflect that sentiment. Obama has finally found his voice? Perhaps, though what he's saying now isn't all that different from what he was saying six weeks ago.

Instead, what's really changed are the issues now animating the campaign. Or, to put it another way, it's no longer the war, stupid -- it's the economy.

The conventional wisdom in this primary campaign has always been that the Iraq War was Hillary's Achilles Heel. As is often the case, the conventional wisdom was wrong: As long as the Democratic race was focused on foreign policy and terrorism, Hillary's asset of experience went a long way.

Over the past month, however, the campaign terrain has changed. As the economy has worsened and efforts on the ground in Iraq have seemed to improve, the Democratic candidates have stopped talking about the war so much and have focused on domestic concerns.

This shift negates Obama's weaknesses -- and the Clinton campaign should know it. After all, one of the main things that enabled Bill Clinton to get elected in 1992 against a far more experienced incumbent is that with the end of the Cold War, foreign policy experience no longer counted for nearly as much. But apparently, the Clinton people have forgotten it. Their goal must now be to shift part of the campaign dialogue back to foreign affairs and the war on terrorism, while still sounding optimistic.

It may not necessarily be what Democrats want to hear. But as long as the issues of foreign policy and terrorism remain in the background of the Democratic campaign, it's Obama who will benefit.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/