JOHNSTON, IA - The gents at the Politico take an in depth look at issue I speculated about briefly more than a month ago: namely, how Rudy Giuliani's fortunes on the Republican side are linked to Hillary's Clinton's on the Democratic side. I wrote:

It's fairly well established that one of Rudy Giuliani's most valuable attributes in the eyes of Republicans is that he promises to run the toughest and most competitive race against Hillary in the general election. Of course, that perception hinges on the widely held assumption among Republicans that Hilllary is the presumptive nominee of the Democrats.

So if Hillary wins Iowa, most pundits agree it will essentially guarantee her the nomination. That in turn could help boost Giuliani's chances in New Hampshire as Granite State voters come to grips with this reality just days later, though I suspect much of that is already "priced in" toGiuliani's support there.

However, if Hillary Clinton suffers a defeat in Iowa and it throws the Democratic race wide open, will Rudy lose some of his appeal among Republican voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina? Put another way, how will Republican voters reassess their primary choices if suddenly Hillary is no longer the presumptive Democratic nominee?

For that reason, I would think that what should be most concerning to Rudy's camp right now is not that he finishes 3rd in Iowa 55 days from now, but Hillary does.

At the time I wrote that, Clinton was up more than 7 points in RCP Average in Iowa.. Thirty-four days later she's now running 2.3% behind Obama. Similarly, Clinton was up nearly 18 points on Obama in New Hampshire, today her lead is down to just 2 points. Over that same period, Rudy has lost more than 5 points in Iowa, and slipped nearly 3.8 points in New Hampshire.

Obviously, Giuliani's position in the polls is determined primarily by the dynamics within the Republican field. And though it's impossible to tell with any degree certainty, I suspect there's something to the idea that Hillary's decline on the other side may have had some impact on Giuliani's appeal among Republican primary voters.