Open to Influence?

Here are the take away grafs from the new CBS News/NY Times poll:

Mrs. Clinton is viewed favorably by 68 percent of Democrats, followed by Mr. Obama, viewed favorably by 54 percent. Mr. Edwards is viewed favorably by 36 percent.

On the Republican side, in contrast, Mr. Giuliani is viewed favorably most frequently, and that is by only 41 percent. Senator John McCain is viewed favorably by 37 percent, and Mr. Romney by 36 percent. Mr. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 30 percent, and 60 percent say they do not know enough about him to offer an opinion, suggesting that he may be vulnerable to the kind of attacks that his opponents have already been mounting against him.

Seventy-six percent of Republican respondents say they could still change their minds about whom to support, compared with 23 percent who say their decision is firm. Among Democrats, 59 percent say they may change their minds, as against 40 percent who say they have made their decision.

That is a very fluid electorate. We've seen the kind of volatility this has created on the Republican side with the meteoric rise of Mike Huckabee, but another consequence could be that voters on both sides will be more susceptible than usual to the influence of the media crush that will accompany an early state victory or "better than expected finish."

If that's true, it may bode very well for Obama. People love a winner. And if Obama proves to Democrats he is a winner by besting the Clinton machine in Iowa, with roughly six in ten Democratic voters saying they may still change their minds, it could be the catalyst that swings the nomination his way.



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