Penn's Warning
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Clinton pollster & strategist Mark Penn issued a "where the race stands" update yesterday afternoon that contained a warning about the most recent round of polls:
What's happening in the Democratic primary for president?
A lot less than the headlines would suggest.
Iowa continues to be a competitive race while Hillary is maintaining meaningful leads in all the other states and in the national polls that are representative of her Feb 5th strength.
But with the plethora of polls it is becoming increasingly difficult to follow what is a trend, what is a poll without a trend, what is a screened phone poll and what is a computer driven poll. The natural tendency is for those polls that show it closer to get more attention. They are "news."
Penn goes onto warn his audience to be very careful and to use apples to apples comparisons when looking at the latest round of polls.
In the end, Penn concludes:
These races are always roller coasters, with so many different polls and so many different results.
So to wrap up - poll reader beware. No question that this is a fully engaged race and the polls in Iowa are competitive and tight. Iowa is a state where Hillary started behind and has been improving steadily. But the polls in the other states show meaningful leads as we head into the home stretch, and Hillary maintains a national base in Feb 5th states that is strong and unmatched. And that's what the polls show.
That's what they show from the Clinton campaign's perspective, at least. The Obama folks have a different interpretation, I'm sure.

