The latest Rasmussen Democratic poll today from South Carolina has that race in almost a tie: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 36%-34%. But the real import of the poll is the figures it shows on the black vote in South Carolina: In contrast to an earlier Rasmussen poll which had the candidates running roughly evenly in the black community, Obama is now defeating Clinton among black voters there 51%-27%.

If this is a national trend that holds, it has the potential to be huge. As I've noted previously, black voters are a huge constituency in the Democratic primaries - around 20 percent - and they could give Obama a solid base to build on in virtually every state (though not, interestingly, in Iowa or New Hampshire). They also could give him unusual strength in many states that would normally not be fertile ground for a staunch Illinois liberal.

Jesse Jackson's 1988 campaign is instructive. In the Democratic primaries that year, Jackson captured 92 percent of the black vote, carrying him to wins in 11 states - including Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Virginia - all of which will now be prime targets for Obama as well. Jackson's popularity among black voters also gave him, as it may now Obama, a huge delegate boost nationally and a reason to stay in the race until the end, since convention delegates tend to be apportioned by congressional district and a number of predominantly black districts could give Obama pockets of support everywhere.

On February 5th, for example, if this trend holds, Obama should be able to do very well in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee. Add Illinois to the mix that day and he more than holds his own.

The conventional wisdom about the Democratic race has been that Obama has to win early in Iowa and New Hampshire to derail Clinton. Maybe.

But if he can just survive and hold his support in the black community, he could stage a revival as the primaries go along, much like Ronald Reagan did in 1976 when he lost the early primaries Gerald Ford but came back strongly in the end.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/