Rasmussen is out with a new survey of the Dems in Iowa (Nov 26-27, 1,156 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3.0%) , and he shows an ever so slight tightening in what remains a three-way dog fight:

Clinton 27 (-2 vs. last poll Nov 12)
Obama 25 (+1)
Edwards 24 (-1)
Richardson 10 (nc)

Overall, Clinton's lead in the RCP Average for Iowa is down to just 1.2%, and the trend lines look favorable for Barack Obama:

And, as with the Huckabee-Romney flip on the GOP side, Intrade now has Obama as the favorite to win Iowa, with his contracts trading at 50.0 to Clinton's 45.0.

Free trade, immigration, dollar policy, and just a little Wal-Mart bashing were on the menu yesterday afternoon at Chicago's downtown Standard Club. CNN host and rumored presidential aspirant Lou Dobbs was in town, entertaining a lunch crowd with a quick Q & A and book signing. The highlights were many - and lively.

When asked, for instance, if anyone in the audience had a presidential candidate they were "genuinely enthusiastic" about, only five hands were raised out of the roughly 160 people in attendance. The tally: Obama 3, Giuiliani 1, Biden 1, Dobbs 1. Further questions covered our massive pile of unfunded entitlements (the $53 billion question that most presidential candidates avoid like the plague), media bias, and, interestingly, whether or not our politicians are just giving Americans what they want: more and more consumerism at the price of more and more debt.

Dobbs, as his familiars might guess, disagreed with the latter, centering his talking points on two unrepresentative parties and the need for an independent, populist candidate - one who, he predicted, would surface in "the next 90-120 days...same timing as Ross Perot. We need this desperately."

Could it be you, Lou? "I have absolutely no one in mind when I make that prediction," Dobbs said. "If I did, I would be on their doorstop, begging them to run." As they say in his business, stay tuned.

As we wrote yesterday, there's an easy way to assess who benefited from last night's debate: Who did better in the eyes of Iowa voters -- Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee? The consensus, including the analysis of David Yepsen, is that it was Huckabee by an Arkansas country mile. That means he obviously benefited but so, by implication, did John McCain who needs Romney defeated in Iowa to give himself a fighting chance to win New Hampshire five days later. The loser last night, besides Romney, was Fred Thompson who needs to be the sole southern conservative standing by the time we get to South Carolina mid-month.

And Rudy Giuliani? From his behavior last night, he'd rather take his chances against Huckabee than Romney. So, if he's right in his political analysis, he had a good night too.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/

On this day in 1947 the United Nations voted to partition Palestine and create a Jewish state. Now for today's top election stories, beginning, obviously, with last night's CNN/YouTube debate:

"In Debate, Romney and Giuliani Clash on Immigration Issues" (Michael D. Shear and Dan Balz, Washington Post) It's becoming tradition this primary season for the liveliest part of the debate to occur in the first 10 minutes, and last night was no exception, as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney went at it over immigration.

A few more debate stories:

"Republican Debate Features Web Queries, Sharp Exchanges" (Amy Schatz and June Kronholz, Wall Street Journal)
"'Gay Question' General Linked to Clinton" (Kenneth Vogel, The Politico)
"Huckabee Takes Fire as GOP Candidates Hold Lively Debate" (Steven Thomma, McClatchy Newspapers)
"Giuliani Dismisses Report About Expenses" (Associated Press)

"Bill Clinton Stumbles on Stump for Wife" (Jill Lawrence, USA Today) A look into the accuracy, and reaction, to Bill Clinton's statement Monday that he opposed the Iraq war "from the beginning."

"Huckabee's Surge Stirs the Pot in Iowa" (Laura Meckler, Wall Street Journal) Surging in Iowa, Mike Huckabee still has a ways to go to prove that his candidacy has staying power.

"Clinton Assails Obama's Health Care Plan" (Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times) Slipping a bit in the polls in Iowa, Clinton is stepping up the attacks on her closest competitor.

"GOP Abortion Rights Group Raps Romney" (Jim Kuhnhenn, Associated Press) The pro-choice group, the Republican Majority for Choice, will begin airing ads this weekend attacking Romney's current abortion stance as politically motivated.

"Pastor's Invitation to Clinton Draws Fire From Some Christians" (Josh Gerstein, New York Sun) Evangelical Christians are heated that prominent pastor Rick Warren extended an invitation to Clinton to speak at an AIDS and HIV forum at Warren's California church.

"Obama Helped Ex-Boss Get $1 Mil From Charity" (Tim Novak, Chicago Sun-Times) Questions are being raised surrounding a charity Obama worked for which gave money to Obama's former boss at a law firm.

"Long-time Caucus Goers Reflect on What's Changed, Constant" (Kurt Allemeier, Quad-City Times) A nice look at Iowans who've been attending caucuses for decades.

"Detroit 3 Swing Support to Dems" (Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press) Erstwhile GOP backers, the big three auto companies think they know where the electoral winds are blowing and are giving accordingly.

Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

It is not about Iowa only any more. Mike Huckabee has a real shot to be the Republican nominee.

A month ago after the Values Voters conference I opined:

I don't know that Mike Huckabee will win the GOP Iowa Caucus, but right now he looks like a solid choice to finish second, and at 5-1 I like his odds to win Iowa outright.

The chart below shows Huckabee's impressive move up to 3rd in the latest RCP Average in Iowa. Coupled with his overwhelming win in the Values Voters (onsite) straw poll this weekend, the potential emergence of Mike Huckabee into the first tier is a significant development in the GOP race.

Well that potentiality has materialized. And at roughly 10-1 to win the Republican nomination (he is trading in 3rd place at 11.7 at Intrade) I like his odds to be the GOP nominee.

(more...)

The blogosphere is abuzz following last night's Republican primary debate, so stop by RealClearBlogs to check out all of the latest:

Plant Life: Were Democrats Planted at the CNN/YouTube debate?

Rudy's Rendezvous: Did Giuliani misuse NYC funds?

I(owa) Heart(s) Huckabee: Can Mike Huckabee win Iowa?

Ron Fournier has the best take on Clinton's appearances yesterday: there was indeed a "Good Bill, Bad Bill" at each event.

Clinton started each event by saying that he "pretty much isn't involved in politics" any more, which may be technically true but struck me like an alcoholic saying he "pretty much doesn't drink any more." It was obvious that Clinton relished returning to the trail and, as Fournier points out, you could see him fall back into a "me, myself and I" stump speech as if it was '92 or '96 again with the bus sitting outside and the Fleetwood Mac blaring over the loud speakers.

What Fournier doesn't convey in his piece, however, is just how darn effective and persuasive Clinton was yesterday at selling Hillary.

People often refer to Clinton as the best retail politician of the last generation, without understanding exactly what that means. Watching Clinton work a room of people up close is like watching a master painter step up to the canvas. I know it sounds cliche, but he is simply that good when it comes to crafting a narrative that connects to and influences voters.

And yesterday, despite the fact he prattled on, went off script, and was grossly self-indulgent at times, by the time he was done at each event Bill Clinton had made a very persuasive case on behalf of his wife.

At the event in Dewitt I had a long conversation with an older couple seated just in front of the press divider as we waited for Bill to take the stage (the former president still travels on "Clinton time" - which means anywhere from twenty minutes to two hours late).

She was a registered Democrat who said she had narrowed it down to a choice between Clinton and Obama, he presented himself as a registered Independent who typically voted Democrat but was currently undecided. Both had very warm feelings toward Bill and the time he was in office, but both expressed a variety of reservations about voting for Hillary.

As they got up to leave an hour and a half later, I asked them whether Bill had made the sale. They both nodded in the affirmative, and the woman remarked that part of what had won her over was the idea of seeing Bill back in the White House as part of a "two for one" deal.

My story involves an admittedly small sample size. And these two folks may have gotten up this morning and changed their minds back. Or maybe there will be something else that changes their mind before caucus night. The point of the story is that those who think Bill Clinton isn't an asset to Hillary's primary campaign are out of their minds. When he's in front of Democratic leaning audiences, the Good Bill far outweighs the Bad.

Lots of debate today on Bill Clinton's statement in Iowa that he opposed the Iraq war "from the beginning."

Dig in and decide for yourself:

Mark Halperin has the details from the Clinton campaign supporting Bill's statement.

But Matthew Yglesias digs up a Guardian column Bill wrote on March 18, 2003, suggesting the former president wasn't all that opposed.

RealClearBlogs has more blogger reax.

The Edwards campaign kicked off its "America Belongs To Us" effort today, complete with a brand new site, stating, in part, that "Lobbyists have taken control in Washington and America's hard-working families pay the price."

The campaign is looking to get 1 million visitors to sign the "America Belongs To Us" pledge:

Because I believe we need real change in America and an end to the broken system in Washington that works for special interests and not us, I pledge not to vote or caucus for a Democratic presidential candidate that accepts campaign contributions from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs.

An interesting idea, even if the name could be read as some comic book villain's fist-pumping exhortation.

If you're looking for a chuckle, I've got just the ticket. Here's Mike Gravel doing his best John Lennon imitation:

(via GMP1)