More on Iowa

As a follow up to my last post on polling in Iowa, Jay Carney has a good post at Swampland looking at the important "second choice" preferences in Iowa.


Poll Update: A Tipping Point in Iowa?

Have we reached a tipping point in Iowa? With the addition of ARG's new poll of the Democratic race in the Hawkeye State, Obama has taken the lead in the RCP Average in Iowa for the first time - by a scant 0.4%.

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On the GOP side in Iowa, Romney and Huckabee remain locked in a tight, two-way battle.

Also, ARG shows Mike Huckabee nearly doubling his support in New Hampshire over the last 2 weeks to 13%, which moves him into fourth place ahead of Ron Paul in the updated RCP Average for New Hampshire.

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Clinton remains well ahead on the Democratic side in New Hampshire, +12.5% in the RCP Average.

Lastly, ARG shows Huckabee surging in South Carolina, more than tripling his support in two weeks while Romney slipped and Giuliani remained static. Huckabee is now in a close fourth place in South Carolina in the RCP Average, only 6 points off the lead.

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Clinton remains well ahead on the Democratic side in South Carolina.


Chatter in the Blogosphere

The week is winding down, so get your fill of blog news and debates from RealClearBlogs to carry you into the weekend:

Murtha Surge: Does John Murtha support the surge now?

Osama Beg Laden: Is the Al Qaeda terror leader becoming desperate?

Robert Novak: "Why Lott cashed it in"


The Daily 2008

On this day in 1967 Sen. Eugene McCarthy announced his intention to run for president -- how times have changed. Also, two notable birthdays: Mark Twain in 1835 and Winston Churchill in 1874. Now to today's top stories, starting with the fallout from Wednesday's debate:

"CNN Hit for Planted Questions" (Christina Bellantoni, Washington Times) Doing what it does best, yesterday the blogosphere sprung to action to do the fact-checking of Wednesday's YouTube questioners that CNN didn't do. (For more on the debate and the whole "YouTube Experiment" from your humble correspondent, go here.)

"Rudy: 'Debate Dirty Trick'" (CBS News) Rudy Giuliani gave an interview to Katie Couric to rebut the charges that he improperly used security funds.

"Ron Paul on Track to be Biggest Fundraiser" (Jeanne Cummings, The Politico) For Ron Paul and his supporters, it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...

"The Evolution of John Edwards" (Thomas Beaumont, Des Moines Register) Reporter Beaumont's lead is perfect: "John Edwards tells voters that there are still two Americas. What Iowa caucusgoers must decide is if there are two John Edwardses."

"Citing Statistics, Giuliani Misses Time and Again" (Michael Cooper, New York Times) The Grey Lady comes out swinging today against its former mayor.

"Huckabee Ascendant, Turns His Focus to Iowa" (Melanie Asmar, Concord Monitor) Huckabee's strategy from here on out is simple enough: Win Iowa, surge in New Hampshire, onwards to victory. A nice analysis from reporter Asmar.

"Immigration Group: Huckabee a 'Disaster'" (Stephen Dinan, Washington Times) What's that law of physics? For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction? Well, however it goes, Huckabee is learning it well.

"Clinton, Democrats Find Religion, Court Evangelical Voters" (Carla Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle) Hillary visited one of the country's largest megachurches in California yesterday for a summit on AIDS.

"GOP Gay Group Slams Romney in New Ad" (Associated Press) Now they're called "Mitt-flops," according to a gay rights group that is attacking Romney hard on his tax record in a new ad campaign.

Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.


Krugman vs. Obama

Barack Obama undoubtedly got a jolt on the way to his meeting with New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg this morning when he opened his New York Times to discover columnist and liberal icon Paul Krugman slamming his health care plan and, worse, accusing him of "echoing right-wing talking points." In Democratic circles, it doesn't get much worse than this and one can expect to see Krugman's charges make an appearance in an Edwards or Clinton ad or two as things move along.

One column does not a campaign make. But it's indicative of one key development. Obama's mini-surge has come awfully early, giving his opponents ample time to answer back. John Kerry and John Edwards surged later in Iowa last time - and that was ages ago technology-wise, in a year when the race was not nearly as intensely covered as now and few had Blackberries.

It's not that Obama won't win Iowa. It's that to do so, he's going to need a second and a third act. In the early days of television, Bob Hope complained "in the old days you could do one sketch for five years. But if you use that sketch on TV, in one night it's used up." The same principle applies to this year's process, which is the first real campaign of the internet age.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/


'America's going to miss him'

A tribute to Henry Hyde in his hometown paper, The Daily Herald.

More on Hyde in the New York Times, and the Washington Post.


The Spitzernator

"Listen," he shrieked, "I'm a f****** steamroller, and I'll roll over you and anybody else."

Any guesses who said this? A pro-wrestler in a fit of roid rage or an ego maniacal Hollywood star? Try New York Democratic Governor Eliot Spitzer, just two weeks into his first term ripping the Republican minority leader of the State Assembly, according to an account in David Margolick's feature in the upcoming issue of Vanity Fair.


PM Line

The Carribean was rocked by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake.

Speaking of being rocked, CNN has taken an absolute beating today for letting a committed supporter of Hillary Clinton go unidentified in asking a question about gays in the military. David Bohrman, senior vice president for CNN and executive producer of the Florida debate, says "there's no way" Kerr was a plant.

Rudy got broadsided yesterday with Ben Smith's report about questionable billing practices while he was Mayor, and Rudy swatted the story down at last night's debate. But another tentacle has sprouted from the story, and ABC News reports Giuliani will appear on CNBC tonight at 6pm eastern to discuss the matter of billing practices.

Rooting for the home team: how great will it be if opponents of Hugo Chavez are able to shoot down his effort at what some are calling a "Constitutional coup" by defeating his referendum on Sunday? Assuming the vote isn't already fixed in Chavez's favor, that is.

Like mother, like daughter: Former NJ Gov and EPA Head Christie Todd Whitman's daughter, Kate, is running for Congress in Jersey's 7th district.

Splitting the Teddy? The British teacher facing 40 lashes for letting her class name their mascot teddy bear "Muhammed" has avoided the whip but will spend 15 days in jail and then be deported from the Sudan. I'm sure she'll be sorry to leave.

This morning Q3 economic growth was revised upward to 4.9% from the previous mark of 3.9%. But despite that piece of good news, Bloomberg says the economy is faltering.

Fighting over Huckabee: Carl Cameron has video of a dust up in the spin room last night.

Meanwhile, Chuck Hagel is out making more friends in the White House.

Yada, yada, yada: Osama bin Laden urged the Europeans to stop helping America in the war in Afghanistan.

Can't we all just get along? Rodney King was wounded by gunfire last night.

Now go get ready to watch the Packers vs. the Cowboys.


What He Said

Richelieu's take on last night:

What a depressing debate. CNN's long slide into mediocrity accelerates. Is this what running for president of the greatest democracy in the world has become? Standing in front of CNN's corporate logo in a hall full of yowling Ron Paul loons and enduring clumsy webcam questions from Unabomber look-a-likes in murky basements?

This is a great bit as well:

My cheers went to a listless Fred Thompson who easily qualified himself to be president in my book by looking all night like he would cheerfully trade his left arm for an early exit off the stage to a waiting Scotch and good Cuban cigar.


The Kerr Fallout

The debate was barely in the books when Bill Bennett, as a member of CNN's post-debate panel, said he had heard that Retired Brig. Gen. Keith H. Kerr, who asked the pointed question about gays in the military, had ties to Hillary Clinton's campaign. Now, if Bennett had found out so quickly, what was the deal with CNN's fact-checking operation, which, one assumes, had several weeks to vet Kerr?

In any case, here's Anderson Cooper acknowledging CNN's mistake last night:

And here's CNN's John Roberts interviewing Kerr this morning (and doing his best to try to downplay CNN's ethical lapse):

It matters little how much work, if at all, Kerr has done for Clinton's campaign. What matters is that he is a partisan and a Democratic activist. Had this been mentioned in the debate last night, his question and presence might not have been such an outrageous breach of journalistic standards.

More debate highlights in the Vlog.



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