Believe it or not, tonight marks one of the final debates the Democrats will have before Iowa in only two months. And. the press is playing up tonight's MSNBC encounter as the debut of the "new Obama" -- building expectations that he will finally go after Hillary.

But the question of whether Obama and Clinton clash is only a sideshow to the real question this debate and the next one in a little over two weeks will begin to decide for the Democrats. What these contests are really about is whether it's Obama or Edwards who becomes the candidate who survives the first two tests in Iowa and New Hampshire to take Clinton on in the later primaries as the "anti-Hillary."

As such, both candidates should be aiming tonight's performances at a very small audience -- Iowa caucus voters -- because if either candidate finishes third in that caucus, his campaign is as good as over. That's true even for Obama, despite all his millions.

With that in mind, here's what each has to do tonight:

Edwards:

His main task is to consolidate his support on the Left and to continue to refashion himself as the Democrats' passionate "outsider." As Tom Oliphant pointed out in the Guardian recently, both Obama and Clinton have yet to take a stand that would remove American troops from Iraq quickly upon taking office. (They are, as he pointed out, essentially "Bush-lite.") Edwards should expand his views that only a single brigade need be left in the country and keep stressing the difference. He should say, "While they [Clinton and Obama] argue about Senate votes and procedure, let's look at who on this stage would really end this terrible and divisive war."

He also needs to position himself strongly as the traditional Democrat in the race -- the heir to the tradition of John and Robert Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson -- against the other two front-runners who stand for a different tradition. (And he should say so explicitly.)

Finally, he should go out of his way to praise "the little 4" whenever he can -- Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, and Richardson. This will make him look like the uniter of the party (especially if Obama and Clinton clash) and, in Iowa, he needs their supporters on caucus night.

Every time he can bring an example back to a place or an issue in Iowa, that will help. And, as always, every mention of Elizabeth will too.

His basic theme should be "A Democrat -- For A Change -- Who Will Always Fight For You." The contrast with the more diffident Obama will be obvious.

Obama:

Essentially what this campaign should do is lock Obama in a room and force him to watch tapes of Gary Hart's debate before the Iowa caucus in 1984. Much like Obama, he was trying to present himself as a candidate of a new generation with new ideas -- except that beginning with that debate, he was able to do it (at least for awhile) far better than Obama has been able to do it so far.

The truth is that clashing with Hillary repeatedly tonight is the worst thing that Obama could do, since it will undermine the whole premise of his candidacy that he is a new and different force in politics. And, he'd better be very careful of going after her on her vote designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization, since it will be very tempting for any other candidate to point out that it was hardly a sign of leadership for Obama to miss that vote so he could campaign.

What he needs to do instead is constantly pepper his remarks with phrases like, "We need to try something new;" "It's time for a new politics," or "The American people deserve a new approach that's different from the politics of the past." One of Obama's problems is that while he promises a new politics, he sounds terribly conventional. More one or two syllable words, with action verbs would help. So would banning the word "I" from his vocabulary, to be replaced by "we." He should also stop referring to himself in the third person ("America needs a leader who will tell the truth . . . .")

"It isn't just Bush and Cheney that are the problem; politics-as-usual is the problem. We need to change America,' should be his theme. If he does that, voters will get the point that he's different from Hillary and, for that matter, different from Edwards too.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/