Tom Bevan has already noted how Stephen Colbert would draw 13% in the latest Rasmussen Poll in a Clinton-Giuliani race, with Clinton winning 45%-35%. But it's worth pointing out an important point the poll illustrates. Virtually any third-party candidacy in 2008 is going to hurt the Republicans. And there is likely to be one of these candidacies next year, if not more.

That's because an independent candidate -- even a liberal one -- represents a challenge to the status quo. (Hillary only led Giuliani by seven points in a two-person race in a recent Rasmussen Poll.) Unless the Republicans can somehow make the Democratic candidate the virtual incumbent -- which frankly is an almost impossible task -- they have to do everything they can to keep the influence of these candidates marginal. That may be possible with, say, a Ron Paul. But if there's any TV celebrity who decides to "answer the call" -- whether the last name is Dobbs, Colbert, or whatever -- the GOP's chances will be greatly diminished.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/