The Perils of Poll Hyperventilation
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One follow up thought to the new Washington Post/ABC News poll. If you remember, three weeks ago the Washington Post created a stir with its last survey, citing a nine-point drop for Rudy Giuliani as evidence that he was suffering a "dramatic erosion in his support."
At the time, John pointed out what an overly dramatic assertion this was given the rest of the available polling data.
So now that Giuliani has bounced back 6 points in its new survey to 34%, is the Post reporting a "dramatic resurgence of support" for Rudy? Well, not quite:
Rudolph W. Giuliani leads the race for the GOP presidential nomination, with Republican voters describing him as the field's strongest leader and most electable candidate in the 2008 general election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
But the Republican contest remains unsettled just three months before the first votes will be cast, and in comparison with fellow New York politician Hillary Rodham Clinton, Giuliani is a far less solid front-runner. He has double the support of his nearest rival, but a majority of those who support him do so only "somewhat." At the same time, his advantages on key attributes are smaller today than they were earlier in the campaign, reflecting continued uncertainty among Republicans about their choices in the presidential race.
The moral of the story is not to get too excited or to draw overly broad conclusions from any one poll - even if its your own.

