DAVENPORT, IA - The Dean of the Iowa press corps says Obama hurt himself by skipping last night's debate. I'm not so sure.

I do think, however, that Obama is starting to run out of opportunities to shake up the dynamic of what has been a very stable race thus far. You can feel Clinton regaining her grip on the "inevitability" aspect of her candidacy. She's done a good job of blunting Obama's attacks on the Iraq war, and now she has effectively cut off angles on healthcare as well.

To Jay's point yesterday, Obama hasn't yet begun to deploy his resources - which are considerable - in the early states. But Hillary has significant resources as well, so money isn't going to be the deciding factor.

So, with roughly 100 days until the caucuses, Obama needs to change the status quo of the race. So far, he hasn't been able to, and if he isn't able to find a way to do it soon, it's hard to see how he'll be able to catch Hillary.