The Real GOP Poll Picture

Here is the first paragraph from the Washington Post's story on their newly released ABC News/Wash Post poll:

Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani continues to lead the race for the Republican presidential nomination, but he has seen a dramatic erosion in his support, which now stands at its lowest point of the year, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

One of the reasons that RealClearPolitics created the RCP Poll Averages seven years ago was to break through much of the media spin to present a far more accurate picture of where a particular race truly stands.

There has been a flurry of major poll releases over the last few days (Gallup, CBS/NYT, CNN, ABC/WP) and a quick look at the most recent RealClearPolitics chart of the Republican field shows you exactly what the real "news" is in the national GOP race:

rcp-poll-avg-gop-9-12.gif

As one can plainly see, there has been no "dramatic erosion" in Giuliani's support over the last 3-4 months. In fact, the opposite is true: after a steady decline from early spring until the beginning of summer, Giuliani has been holding steady in the mid-to-high twenties.

The real story, post Labor Day, has been the solid pop for Fred Thompson following his formal announcement last week, the resurgence of John McCain, the small but steady improvement for Mike Huckabee, the lack of any national follow-through for Mitt Romney following his bounce after the Iowa straw poll and the continued stability of support for the GOP front-runner Rudy Giuliani.



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