The Instant Frontrunner
Posted by wpcomimportuser1 | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Announcing his retirement last week, Virginia Senator John Warner inadvertently created the instant front-runner for 2008. He didn't anoint a candidate, but he did ensure that the Virginia Senate race will be the most talked-about Senate race in 2008. Think about it: Every political reporter wants a dateline outside his or her area, and Virginia is the closest away game to Washington.
The race is off to a fast start, as well. Former Gov. Mark Warner, widely expected to be the Democratic nominee, spent Labor Day literally running at the annual parade in Buena Vista, near Roanoke and Virginia's western border. Urged by one parade-goer to run for office, Warner confessed: "I've got the itch."
Also marching in the parade: State Sen. Creigh Deeds, the 2005 Democratic nominee for Attorney General who lost by just 323 votes out of nearly 2 million cast statewide. Deeds is up for re-election to the Senate this year in a district that runs from the western border of Virginia to Charlottesville, including Buena Vista. Many think Deeds is far from finished with his quest for a statewide bid.
On the Republican side, party insiders are looking forward to a convention as opposed to a primary in order to pick their nominee. Having a convention, say many, limits the damage a publicly-waged primary can do to an eventual nominee. "The party has learned that if you're going to have a fight, at a convention it doesn't get disseminated as wide," one insider said. Another said that while John Warner preferred a primary, a preference the party honored, favoring a convention has "traditionally been the perspective of the central committee."
Some speculate that a convention favors former Gov. Jim Gilmore, and he will have valuable and vocal allies on the Virginia Republican Party's central committee, which will decide whether to hold a nominating convention. Shortly after John Warner announced he would step down, Virginia Republican National Committee members Morton Blackwell and Anne Petera emailed top GOPers announcing their support for Gilmore.
The email seeks to preempt some Republicans who argue that Congressman Tom Davis, with his roots in Northern Virginia, would be a stronger candidate in the general election: "Jim Gilmore has won statewide election twice -- carrying Northern Virginia both times against wealthy Northern Virginia opponents who were early favorites," Blackwell and Petera write.
Meanwhile, Patrick Ruffini, former online director for the RNC, is touting the prospects of Rep. Eric Cantor. But Cantor, safely ensconced in a reliably Republican district, may not want to give up his growing influence in the House, where he serves as deputy Minority Whip.
The GOP will hold a convention in 2008, though it is currently only scheduled to elect a new party chairman. The 83 members of the Virginia Republican Party will meet October 13th in Richmond to decide whether to add the Senate contest to that convention.

