Neil Steinberg of the Chicago Sun-Times was having a bad day the other day- and then Hillary called:

Just as I was typing away, 7 p.m., gingerly backing away from error, the phone rang -- must be the paper again -- and I picked it up.

"Hello, this is Hillary Clinton," said the senator from New York, and for one daft moment I thought it was really her on the line. It was that kind of day. "And I'd like to say these eight simple words," the recording continued. "'When I become president ...'''

"F--- you, Hillary," I said, slamming down the phone. What is it with these candidates? Why must they torture us? Shut up, print your platform in the paper the day before election, and leave us alone. It's a shame we have to vote for anyone.

I'm sure Rudy Giuliani will be disappointed to learn New York Times columnist Tom Friedman won't be voting for him.

CNN is reporting Newt's spokesperson has said the former Speaker will not run for president in 2008.

Newsweek is out with a poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers (September 26-27). On the Democratic side, Obama is leading Clinton by four:

Democrats
Obama 28
Clinton 24
Edwards 22
Richardson 10
Biden 5
Undecided 9

When first and second choices are combined, Obama doubles his lead:

Obama 52
Clinton 44
Edwards 41
Richardson 19
Biden 11

Overall, Hillary Clinton's lead in the RCP Average for Iowa is down to just 2.6%.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney holds an eight point lead, and Mike Huckabee is in double digits next Rudy and Fred:

Republicans
Romney 24
Thompson 16
Giuliani 13
Huckabee 12
McCain 9
Paul 5
Undecided 15

When first and second choices are combined, Giuliani jumps up ahead of Thompson:

Romney 45
Giuliani 34
Thompson 26
Huckabee 14
McCain 13

Overall, Romney leads in the RCP Average for Iowa by 12 points.

Other notables: 55% of likely Democratic caucusgoers say Clinton's handling of the Iraq war makes no difference to them, 21% say it'll make them less likely to vote for her while 22% say it'll make them more likely. 79% say "having Bill Clinton back in the White House would be a good thing for the country" because of his skill and experience, while only 12% say it'll be a bad thing because he might "repeat the kind of embarrassing behavior that led to his impeachment."

SurveyUSA is out with general election match ups in Washington State:

Clinton 47 - Giuliani 47
Clinton 52 - Thompson 42
Clinton 54 - Romney 40

Obama 52 - Giuliani 41
Obama 54 - Thompson 40
Obama 57 - Romney 35

Edwards 45 - Giuliani 44
Edwards 51 - Thompson 36
Edwards 55 - Romney 31

It's early and these polls are meaningless, but still I'm surprised to see Giuliani running so well against Clinton and Edwards in the Evergreen State. Accurate or not, these numbers provide more fodder for Rudy's electability argument to Republican primary voters.

A new Elon University Poll of the '08 race in North Carolina:

Democrats
Clinton 37
Obama 18
Edwards 18
Biden 4
Undecided 21

Republicans
Thompson 28
Giuliani 21
McCain 12
Romney 8
Undecided 25

Other notables: Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue leads State Treasurer Richard Moore in the Democratic nomination for Governor, 35 to 37, but 38% remain undecided. Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole's job approval is right at the 50% mark. 35% say they plan to vote for Dole next year, 26% say they plan to vote against, and 37.4% said they were unsure or it was too early to tell how they planned to vote.

We are the world. The military crackdown continues in Burma. Unrest in Georgia (the other one.) A small victory in Pakistan. US blackmail payoff fuel aid to North Korea.

Republicans in the Senate offer legislation on Iraq. Harry Reid says, thanks, but no thanks. The Senate apparently has more important things to worry about, like condemning Rush Limbaugh.

Stoned. Giuliani looks to the Bible in arguing why people shouldn't judge his personal life.

Stoned - Part II: Newt Gingrich continues to make noise about running for President. Don't bogart that joint, pal.

Here's today's requisite credit crunch bad news: Defaults on Insured Mortgages Increase 30 Percent.

Ben Smith was ringside for Castellanos vs. Penn yesterday in New York.

The super progressive, always tolerant Huffington Post carries the GLBT friendly headline of the day: Right Wing Pulls Its Limp-Wristed Punch from California Ballot; Progressives Win.

Does this mean unemployed people are less depressed?

What does it look like?

Earlier this week, I proposed a new "-ism" for the blogo-lexicon, one intended to describe the numerical obsessions and policy aversions held by the neo-progressives. The point was to poke at the new breed of so-called progressives, those who speak on and on about progressive values, progressive Democrats and progressive everything. Confusing instances of electoral success for policy success, these neo-progressives believe that 2006 somehow entitles them to legislative fiat, and party purity. They tolerate dissent, as long as it adds to their numerical majority in Congress. However, once those dissenting voices begin to buck their narrowly defined "progressive" values, it then becomes necessary to profile, protest and ostracize the dissidents. Their opinions become moot, and primary challenges become necessary.

I call this logic Stollerism.

In response to my post, Mike Lux of Open Left makes the following complaint:

But I just have to say this about the Kevin Sullivan post on "Introducing the Stollerism": what a stupid piece of drivel. In it, Kevin Sullivan announces that a Stollerism is to "declare all debate on a subject over" and "purge the Democratic Party of all dissenting voices."

His evidence? He links to the Bush Dog campaign. The Bush Dog campaign has been a campaign to point out that many Democrats support Bush on a range of issues, and encourage activists to challenge them on those votes. In a few specific cases (very few, actually), Matt or Chris or I have suggested that supporting people running in primaries against Bush Dogs would be a good thing to do. Yeah, that's really purging dissent.

Lux goes on to suggest that I get over myself, and for whatever reason accuses me of red-baiting. I find this characterization to be a bit unfair, particularly since Lux disregarded the bulk of my post (which mostly pertained to the neo-progressive folly on Iran), and instead makes it all about the Bush Dog Campaign. While I most certainly have my issues with such a cheap and shortsighted tactic, it in fact represented just one component of Stollerism. The broader point is one about tone, tactics and the value of dissent in a two-party system.

(more...)

The most common response to my post on why Hillary can be stopped was simply, "this year is not 2004." Clearly there are differences between the two, not the least of which is that the field in '04 didn't have one or two dominant figures like it does this year.

My point, however, was more about voter behavior, and even though Hillary has universal name recognition and is running as a quasi-incumbent, I don't know that that makes the polls right now any more of a valid predictor of the final outcome than they were at this point four years ago, which they weren't at all.

Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are still going to zero in on this race in the final two weeks and start to seriously grapple with their choices, at which point things like this will come into play, along with all the other attributes, both positive and negative, that Hillary brings to the table.

I think most everyone, including yours truly, believes Hillary has been and remains the favorite to win the nomination. But that's a far cry from declaring her victory a foregone conclusion, which is how the media has treated the race the past couple of weeks.There are still too many questions and subtexts churning out there with respect to Mrs. Clinton to come to any definitive answers about how voters will ultimately react.

Just niceties or is this the beginning of a beautiful friendship?

In the spin room, after the PBS All-American Presidential Forum at Morgan State University, Mike Huckabee, R-Arkansas, was asked who was his favorite Democratic candidate in the 2008 presidential race.

"Well, I'd like for all of them to quit," Huckabee initially responded to laughter.

Then, Huckabee explained that when Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, appeared on "the Daily Show," the popular Democrat said he thought Huckabee was the most interesting Republican in the 2008 White House race.

"So let me return the favor and say that since he's been so gracious to me, I will say, you know, I find him to be the most interesting Democrat and maybe we'll end up on the stage together one day," Huckabee said.