Posturing Or Promising?

As Attorney General Alberto Gonzales packs up his desk, White House officials and GOP strategists tell the Washington Post today that about half a dozen names are being bandied about as a possible successor, though no favorite has emerged and that President Bush is willing to pick a fight with the Senate over his chosen nominee. Whether Bush really would pick a fight or the attitude is just pre-nomination posturing remains to be seen, though a shoving match could be a positive for the president.

There are perhaps only three entities less popular that President Bush at the moment. One is his vice president, who no one likes. Another is the newly unemployed Gonzales. The third, though, is the U.S. Congress, and whether or not that's a symptom of the public's attitude toward Washington and politicians in general or an actual reflection of negative feelings towards Democrats, going to war with someone less popular than yourself is an almost guaranteed winner. Plus, there's little chance that Democrats would be able to muster the votes to defeat the nomination unless it were a truly extreme candidate.

Democrats could benefit as well, though. No matter who the pick is, the Senate majority, led by dogged questioners like Chuck Schumer and Judiciary Committee chairman Patrick Leahy, will take the opportunity to bring up previous DOJ mismanagement, warrantless wiretaps, the firing of U.S. Attorneys and practically anything else they can think of, not necessarily to derail the nomination but to keep the spotlight on issues on which they win.

In the end, both sides would likely be happy with a drawn-out confirmation battle. In the meantime, Solicitor General Paul Clement, a solid conservative, will be running the department, giving Bush an ideological ally for at least 210 days (the length of a temporary AG's term), while Democrats will be pleased to be able to keep scandals alive as long as possible.

Add the nomination fight to a heated budget battle, expected over the coming months, and one can surmise that few senators will be sending Christmas cards across the aisle come December, when Congress could very well still be in session.

The Post also gives today's version of the short list, which includes Clement, former deputy AG George Terwilliger, former Solicitor General Ted Olson, former U.S. District Court Judge Michael Mukasey and Court of Appeals Judge Laurence Silberman. Notably absent from the list: DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff, the beneficiary of early speculation about a possible replacement.

The White House has been making phone calls to some Judiciary Committee members, including Schumer, while reaching out to potential picks to see if they want the job.



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