Jonathan Martin reports the Giuliani campaign is trying to work the expectations game against Romney, setting a laughably high bar for the Governor tomorrow. Equally laughable is the effort to lower the bar for Romney which, ironically enough, comes not from the Romney campaign itself but from Hugh Hewitt in this post:

If Senator Brownback or Governor Huckabee don't topple Governor Romney at Ames, the pressure on them to bow out of the race will be huge, and the financial realities even larger.

The idea that Brownback or Huckabee must now beat Romney tomorrow in order to remain in the race is ridiculous. Either would be thrilled with a second or third place finish - especially if one or both finish within a few points of Romney - and their prospects would improve, not diminish.

Hugh finishes by declaring that "a win is a win is a win, and the margin won't matter..." That is an astonishing statement for someone of Hugh's political experience. The margin will most certainly matter - as it always does in Ames and in the early primaries - as will the order of placement of the field. If Giuliani somehow places a close second to Romney tomorrow, for example, it will be a huge blow to Romney's campaign.

Even though that's unlikely to happen, the point, as Hugh well knows, is that tomorrow is all about meeting and/or beating expectations, and the expectations for Romney are exceedingly high given his position at the top of the Iowa polls and the amount of effort and resources he's invested in Ames.

So what is a fair estimation of the expectations for Romney tomorrow? In the most general sense, the minimum bar is probably a ten-point win. Anything less than that will most likely generate negative story lines for Romney which - again, depending on the margin of victory and the order of finish - could range from mildly harmful to severely damaging. Obviously, an outright loss would be devastating for his campaign.

My sense is the expectations for Romney tomorrow are even higher. With Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain not actively participating, no one will be surprised if Romney wins by 20 or more points. It will probably take a huge margin of victory by Romney to generate any real surprise among the media - and therein lies Romney's problem. The potential downside for Romney tomorrow is much greater than the potential upside. He's going to have to score a decent-sized victory just to make the punditry yawn.