On March 12, Senator Chuck Hagel, a two-term member from Nebraska whose seat is up in 2008, invited members of the national media to his home state for what was billed as a discussion of his future plans. Anticipating an announcement that the most prominent anti-war Republican in the Senate would run for President, the assembled horde was disappointed to hear Hagel promise only to make another announcement at a future date about whether he would seek the Oval Office, run for re-election in 2008 or quit politics altogether.

The lengthy and still ongoing decision process has not stopped Republicans in Hagel's home state from circling like sharks, anticipating his retirement or, in some cases, pledging to run against Hagel regardless of the senator's intentions. Those moves, says Creighton University Political Scientist Richard Witmer, could be "the back door way" to getting Hagel out of the race, by putting "some pressure on him early on."

The first to announce a candidacy, and likely Hagel's most difficult challenge, should he run again, is Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning, who filed papers with the FEC just days after Hagel's will-I-or-won't-I announcement. Since, Bruning raised an impressive $728,000, retaining about $642,000 cash on hand. That outpaces Hagel's $531,000 raised during the first two quarters (he has about $482,000 cash on hand).

Hagel's slow fundraising has caused a number of political watchers to speculate that he will call it quits instead of run again. If he does, Bruning's path to the nomination will be easier, though not entirely clear. Former Congressman Hal Daub, his party's 1990 Senate nominee against then-Senator James Exon (D) and former mayor of Omaha, announced he would explore the possibility of running for Hagel's seat. He is in the middle of a listening tour which he hopes will take him to all 93 Nebraska counties by Labor Day.

Financial advisor Pat Flynn officially threw his hat in the ring yesterday. The volunteer youth minister says he will raise about $1.2 million for the primary and has already hired two staffers.

All three candidates have taken thinly veiled jabs at Hagel, saying they believe their constituents are fed up with Washington politicians. That's not Hagel's only liability. Hagel, says Witmer, "certainly has a lot of support, but some of his positions have given some Republicans here pause." Chief among those questions for the GOP is Hagel's opposition to the war. "Republicans still support the president," said Witmer. "There's still support for the troops and support for the war, so Hagel's taking a bit of flack."

In fact, a poll conducted for the Nebraska Democratic Party in late March and early April showed Hagel had a net-negative job approval rating, 42% to 50%, and that more Republicans and independents disapproved of the job he was doing (47% and 58%, respectively) than approved (36% and 39%). Only Democrats, by a 53%-42% margin, favored Hagel's performance. A separate poll, conducted in April for Bruning, showed the AG beating Hagel 47%-38%.

Hagel's three options are rapidly condensing, it seems. If he decides to try for another term in the Senate, he will face a primary as difficult as those faced in recent years by Sens. Joe Lieberman and Arlen Specter (both of whom, like Hagel, boasted better job approval ratings among members of the opposite party).

If he decides to run for the Republican nomination for President, increasingly seen as unlikely given the late date, he has serious catching up to do in terms of fundraising and organization (though, aside from Rep. Ron Paul, there is no anti-war Republican in the field).

One other possibility is that Hagel may end up in the next administration in some capacity or another. Asked who they would pick as a Republican running mate if they won the Democratic nomination, Senator Joe Biden and former Senator John Edwards both named Hagel. The former Army Sergeant and Vietnam Vet could find himself appointed to a cabinet post in a Democrat's administration, much like William Cohen's role in the Clinton Administration.

If he aims higher, Hagel could find himself in the number two spot on a national ticket, perhaps headed by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is considering a bid as an independent. The two dined in New York in early May, and asked afterwards about the meeting, Hagel did nothing to tamp down speculation: "It's a great country to think about a New York boy and a Nebraska boy to be teamed up leading this nation."

If his fundraising activity doesn't pick up and Hagel doesn't begin to take a serious primary challenge seriously, he may be forced to think a lot harder about a Bloomberg presidency as his last option, aside from retirement, for 2008.