Last night, after President Bush released a report on progress in Iraq, the House voted 223-201 to set a deadline to end military involvement in Iraq. Those numbers sound familiar? It was a virtually party-line vote. Washington Post's Paul Kane takes a look at two very unified caucuses -- just four Republicans voted in favor of the bill, while only ten Democrats defected (The Hill also offers a take).

Many note this morning that, for all intents and purposes, President Bush bought the surge at least two more months before the Congress votes again on the matter. With just three weeks left before the month-long August recess, it appears Bush has stanched the bleeding among Senate Republicans. He got a much-needed boost from a frequent skeptic of the way the war is being handled when Senator John Warner, former Armed Services Committee chairman, said he thought the Congress should wait until September, when the next report on the war's progress will come out.

Every week, National Journal (sub req'd) polls a group of Washington insiders and reports the results. While the results are certainly not representative of the American public, they point to clues about how the Beltway is viewing certain developing stories and plot lines. This week's poll indicates that the Beltway has definitely bought in to a first tier in both races that may not be the conventional wisdom elsewhere.

Asked who has the best chance of receiving their party's nomination, a whopping 73% of Democrats chose Senator Hillary Clinton with their first pick. Another 20% chose her as running second. Senator Barack Obama receives 19% of the first-place votes and 63% of the second-place votes. Then the drop-off to the second tier -- where resides former Senator John Edwards, with 5% of the first-place votes and 10% of the second-place votes, among the rest of the field. Whether or not Edwards and Clinton make any sort of deal on a limited field for debates (video here), DC insiders see the race as a two-person contest for now. Edwards, says one of the Insiders, is "fading and relying too much on Iowa. It's not out of the question, but he's becoming more of a long shot."

On the GOP side, the top tier's population is three, with former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (36% first place, 39% second place) and former Governor Mitt Romney (35% first place, 32% second place) dueling it out and outpacing former Senator Fred Thompson (18% first place, 25% second place). Senator John McCain, who in the last survey of this type took 28% of the first place votes, second to Giuliani, scored just 9% of the top picks this week. Hotline On Call picks out the best quote on McCain's flagging chances, from one GOP insider: "The fat lady is about to sing, but she isn't going to get paid either."

The poll doesn't translate into votes, but it does explain why some candidates are getting so much media attention, while others aren't getting the coverage they would like.

Politico's Josh Kraushaar reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee again. The numbers -- approximately $17 million for Democrats, with $19 million cash on hand, and near $14 million for Republicans, with about $2 million cash on hand -- will come closer to parity as the cycle continues, but Democrats do have a giant early lead.

In a meeting with reporters yesterday, NRCC chairman Tom Cole said the party had paid off three quarters of its $16 million debt, leaving about $4 million to be paid. The DCCC has a slightly higher debt.

Also at the pen and pad, Cole revealed that former Speaker Dennis Hastert has shed 60 pounds since giving up the gavel, but in a good way. The Illinois Congressman has been the subject of retirement rumors recently, and Cole said Hastert would make a decision that's in the best interest of the GOP caucus. If he runs for re-election, Hastert would be the heavy (no pun intended) favorite against the winner of a crowded Democratic primary that already has four candidates. There's speculation Hastert may announce his decision at his annual Farmers Picnic this evening.

If Hastert retires, State Senator Chris Lauzen and Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns are rumored to be interested in the GOP nod, and dairy owner Jim Oberweis recently filed papers to make a run for the seat. Oberweis finished second in the 2002 and 2004 Republican Senate primaries and second to Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka in the GOP primary for Governor in 2006.