2008 poll just out from FOX News/Opinion Dynamics:

Democrats
Clinton 42 (+6 vs. last poll June 5-6)
Obama 19 (-4)
Gore 14 (nc)
Edwards 10 (-2)
Undecided 6 (-3)

Clinton's lead in the new RCP Avg. is 14.2%.

Republicans
Giuliani 29 (+7 vs. last poll June 5-6)
McCain 17 (+2)
Thompson 15 (+2)
Gingrich 8 (nc)
Romney 8 (-2)
Huckabee 3 (nc)
Undecided 11 (-8)

Giuliani's lead in the new RCP Avg jumped to 7.4% from 6.0%.

General Election Polls
Clinton 39 - Giuliani 37 - Bloomberg 7

Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
Giuliani 54/30 (+24)
Edwards 49/31 (+18)
Obama 46/30 (+16)
F. Thompson 30/16 (+14)
McCain 47/33 (+14)
Gore 48/42 (+6)
Clinton 46/47 (-1)
Romney 25/26 (-1)
Bloomberg 23/24 (-1)

Other notables from the poll: Bush job approval hits new low of 31%. Job approval for Democrats in Congress is at 36%, for Republicans in Congress it's at 30%.

The Dems debate tonight at Howard University, racial issues will top agenda. This will certainly be among them.

Obama reports an impressive 250,000 contributors to his campaign.

Even though Clinton is estimating a record Q2 fundraising haul "in the range of $27 million," the Clinton campaign predicts it will finish behind Obama this quarter.

Meanwhile, John Edwards' campaign is on the rocks, though Ann Coulter appears to be helping a last minute push for fundraising. And even though Edwards is is sliding in most all of the national and state polls of late, he maintains a strong 18-point lead in the Daily Kos nutroots straw poll.

Fred Thompson: Son of the South.

Marc Ambinder dissects Tony Fabrizio's new survey of the Republican base.

Operation Arrowhead Ripper update.

Though it just happened today, this is already a bit of old news: White House invokes executive privilege.

Republicans presidential candidates are accused of blowing off Hispanic conference in Florida.

Rahmbo takes on Cheney.

Ben Smith just out with this dish: Bloomberg saying last night that Barack Obama is "simply is not experienced enough to become president."

Why on earth do campaigns stage things like this?

Honestly, is there anything less appealing than watching someone eat a big, greasy piece of pizza? Oh, right, I forgot:

Howard Wolfson, Communications Director for the Clinton campaign, emailed supporters earlier today with a note saying it had been a "great quarter for us" and estimating Clinton's Q2 fund raising total "in the range of $27 million."

Read the full text of Wolfson's email below the jump.

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Mitt Romney was quick to release the following statement on the Senate's immigration cloture vote earlier today:

"The immigration bill failed because the politicians in Washington are out of touch with the American people. The voice of the people is loud and clear - secure the border, enforce the law and no special deal for permanent residency or citizenship for illegals. America will always welcome legal immigration, but as a nation we also insist on the rule of law."

Still waiting on statements from other Democratic and Republican presidential candidates.

UPDATE I: Rudy Giuliani just released the following:

"Today a majority in the Senate made clear this bill shortchanged the American people by failing to end illegal immigration and failing to secure our borders. The bill did not deserve to move forward.

"As I have said before, this bill - which I believed was based more on compromise than on principle - failed to do several basic things, including: securing our borders, creating a uniform tamper-proof ID card for all foreign workers and students, establishing a single nationwide database of foreigners, and mandating the full implementation of a biometric 'check in-check out' system.

"The legislation was a hodgepodge at best, and I believe it would have ultimately made our country less secure.

I urge the President to use the authority and funds at his disposal to do everything possible to end illegal immigration and secure our borders."

UPDATE II: Senator Sam Brownback's statement:

"We need comprehensive immigration reform, but the country is not accepting of this bill," Brownback stated. "We need to listen to the American people on both timing and substance. We need to help 'the widow and orphan and foreigner amongst us,' but must do so in a way and at a time the American people support. This is not yet the right way. We should let the topic rest for now while we work diligently to secure our borders. Americans support legal immigration, not illegal immigration. We desire to be compassionate but demand adherence to the rule of law.

"I became convinced along with many of my colleagues on the floor that this version of the immigration bill was not, and would not become the vehicle that would fix our broken system as I had hoped."

Incidentally, a few people have taken notice of the fact that Brownback voted "aye" on cloture this morning and then switched his vote to "nay" eleven minutes later.

UPDATE III: Senator John McCain's statement:

"I am disappointed that the Senate was unable to conclude its debate on comprehensive immigration reform. However, the American people will not settle for the status quo - de facto amnesty and broken borders.

“I am hopeful that we will have another chance to address this critical national security issue that affects people throughout our country. In the meantime, we must keep working to secure our borders while we continue fighting to reform our unenforceable immigration laws."

UPDATE IV: Senator Chris Dodd's statement:

"I am deeply disappointed that the Senate voted against the motion to invoke cloture on S. 1639. With over 12 million undocumented workers in America, a dysfunctional immigration system, and broken borders, our country is facing an immigration crisis that undermines the rule of law, divides families and threatens our national security. The American people expected this Congress to find a workable and comprehensive solution to resolve this crisis. This bill was far from perfect, especially in terms of the guest worker program and family unification. But it offered us an opportunity to move beyond the status quo and fix some of these problems including by investing billions of dollars in border security and practically dealing with the undocumented population. Moreover, by proceeding with the bill and potentially going to conference with the House, we would have had a further opportunity to address some of its shortcomings. Instead, with the bill's defeat, our nation is less secure, our immigration crisis will only fester and deepen, and we have reverted to a silent form of amnesty by doing absolutely nothing. The President has spoken time and again of the importance of achieving comprehensive immigration reform. This was meant to be his signature domestic issue. As this vote made crystal clear today, he failed to deliver as did his party. The President's inability to lead on this issue, as on Iraq, has once again come at an enormous cost to this nation."

UPDATE V: Governor Bill Richardson's statement:

"I am deeply disappointed. You can't solve a problem by ignoring it. We have got to find a way to bridge the divide and bring people together to address the critical problems facing our nation -- immigration, energy, healthcare, education.

"This is the price America pays for divisive leadership. Congress should continue to work on passing immigration reform."

UPDATE VI: Governor Jim Gilmore's statement:

The American people, who have a very strong sense of right and wrong, knew from day one this bill was not what its sponsors said it was -- and that it was the wrong solution for the immigration challenges facing our nation.

They understood the only compromising this legislation did was compromise their economic and national security. The American people stood up and made their voices heard.

We simply cannot afford to provide amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants while the American people struggle to make ends meat (sic).

Looks like Governor Gilmore could use a proofreader. Better yet, someone who could transcribe his comment without making that mistake in the first place.

After getting 64 "YEAs" on Tuesday, proponents of the current bill fell well short today of the necessary 60 votes, with only 46 "YEAs".

The bill for all intents and purposes is dead.

ARG is out with a new poll on the 2008 New Hampshire Senate race. In a hypothetical match up between incumbent Republican John Sununu and former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen, Sununu loses badly, 57-29, with 14% undecided.

The question, of course, is whether those rosy numbers can entice Shaheen to leave her post at the Institute of Politics at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. On Tuesday, former state Democratic Party Chairman Kathy Sullivan launched a "Draft Shaheen" web site designed to do just that.

Friends and associates have been quoted as recently as last week saying Shaheen is "thinking about it hard."

Back in January when Barack Obama officially announced his presidential exploratory committee, I suggested it was "bad news for John Edwards, which in turn is good news for Hillary Clinton."

At the end of 2006, with Mark Warner out and former Vice President Al Gore on the sidelines, John Edwards posed the greatest threat to Senator Clinton's hold on the Democratic nomination. Obama's formal entry into the race immediately split the substantial anti-Hillary vote, which worked to Senator Clinton's advantage and John Edwards' detriment.

On the surface the Democratic race has remained rather static over the last three months - at least as far as the horserace numbers between Clinton and Obama. But not enough attention has been paid to Edwards' crumbling campaign and its consequences on the Democratic contest.

Back in mid-April Edwards peaked in the RCP Average at 17.8%, while Clinton held a 12.8% advantage over Obama, 35.8% to 23.0%. Today, the Clinton - Obama race is virtually unchanged, with the New York Senator holding a 12.4% edge, 36.0% to 23.6%. Edwards, on the other hand, has lost over 30% of his support and has seen his national numbers fall to 12.4% in the latest RCP Average. The most recent Washington Post and Los Angeles Times polls have his national numbers in single digits at 8%. In the InTrade prediction markets Edwards' odds to be the Democratic nominee have plunged from 25% at the beginning of the year to only 5% today.

So while the national horserace numbers between Clinton and Obama have remained unchanged during the last quarter, Edwards' implosion has strategically weakened Senator Clinton's hold on the nomination. The Clinton campaign wants to neutralize Edwards and to limit the odds of him breaking out with an early win in Iowa. But they don't want to see Edwards' campaign totally implode and allow the anti-Hillary forces to rally behind an increasingly powerful Senator Obama.

With the second quarter fundraising numbers due out over the next week and with the rumblings that the Obama campaign is poised to release a monster haul, the potential elimination of Edwards as a serious candidate, coupled with the Obama campaign's ability to not only compete with, but to beat, the vaunted Clinton machine, could be the catalyst that allows Obama to consolidate his position as the sole anti-Hillary candidate. He would then be in a very strong position to tighten those horserace numbers both nationally and in the key early states over the next quarter as we head into the fall.

In his first visit to South Carolina, candidate to be Fred Thompson delivered a "pep talk" to Republicans in Columbia, reports the New York Times' Susan Saulny. (View here.) Thompson said, "A lot of people think our party is on its heels right now, but we're not going to stay there long," adding later: "I think we can be a magnet, form a new coalition. Let's come out the other end stronger and wiser than we were before." Thompson reflected on the midterms and said Republicans lost their way. "Some of our folks went to Washington to dry the swamp and made partnership with the alligators," he said. "The question is, What are your underlying principles? What do you believe in?"

The strongest message from Thompson was his tough talk on immigration, reports the Greenville News' Dan Hoover. Thompson called the current Senate bill "the same deal" as the 1986 reform blamed with making the immigration problem worse. "Secure the border. Nothing else can be dealt with until that is done, and the American people are trying to get that message across." Thompson said not everyone who comes to America illegally is looking for a better life, because some may be from rouge states intending to do harm.

Despite his popularity, some Republican figures in the state are sitting on the fence in regards to Thompson for now. Gov. Mark Sanford hasn't endorsed any candidate, but did have a closed-door meeting with Thompson yesterday, reports The State's Roddie Burris. Marc Ambinder reports that "leading South Carolina Republican consultant Walter Whetsell was ubiquitous" at the event, wore a "I'm With Fred" button, but said he hadn't signed on with Thompson yet. Whetsell is an expert in direct mail and has worked on state legislative races. However, Thompson got one commitment yesterday: Rick Santorum's former communications director, Robert Traynham joined the campaign.

Before Thompson spoke in South Carolina, his position on abortion was disputed on YouTube with videos sent by anonymous detractors and supporters.

Continuing on the Republican side, the Boston Globe's Bob Hohler reports that Mitt Romney used the ties he developed as head of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics to bring in contributions to his gubernatorial race after he "pledged not to exploit the role for political gain and announced that he would not accept any severance pay when he finished the job." Romney received severance pay and a salary from the games but donated both to charity.

Romney aide Jay Garrity has been accused by another reporter for "overzealous security tactics at campaign stops across the country," reports the Boston Herald's Casey Ross. Reporter S.V. Date said Garrity prevented him from entering the state Senate building and claimed it was necessary because of security threats to Romney.

Finally, Romney was also on the receiving end of an anonymous YouTube video that features him in the 1994 Senate debate calling for reducing farm subsidies as part of a balanced federal budget. The Sioux City Journal reports Romney's campaign said he believes agriculture is key to the country and farmers "will play a critical role in lessening our reliance on foreign sources of oil."

John McCain said he expects to have adequate funds for the second quarter, but has a lot of work to do in Iowa, reports the Des Moines Register's Thomas Beaumont. The Washington Post's Michael Shear writes McCain's immigration stance is costing him in Iowa and South Carolina.

On the Democratic side, two candidates gave foreign policy speeches dealing with nuclear weapons. Bill Richardson said the U.S. must tell Iran developing nukes will result in "devastating global sanctions" and that desisting would be met with security guarantees and nuclear fuel from abroad. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton said nuclear proliferation is the "most significant" of all threats to national security and her goal is to "secure all nuclear weapons and material at vulnerable sites" in four years.

In fundraising news, Barack Obama's campaign said it attracted 138,000 new donors for the second quarter this year, bringing his total of donors for 2007 to nearly 250,000. So far the Obama campaign has collected 335,953 contributions, which includes repeat donations from individuals.

Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Elections page.

Recently, the FEC reported the fundraising activities through May 31 of the six national party committees.

The DCCC has raised $26 million, the DNC has raised $25 million, and the DSCC has raised $18 million, for a total of $69 million.

The Republicans have raised $72 million all told. The RNC has pulled in $40 million, the NRCC $23 million, and the NRSC just $9 million.

Once again we see what we saw earlier this month - the NRSC is lagging well behind its Democratic counterpart. Some of this is undoubtedly from the fact that there are 22 Republicans incumbents who are drawing money to themselves and away from the NRSC. But, as I argued, not all of this is explicable by that. In particular, the Senate Republican committee seems to be lagging in individual contributions - pulling in only $6 million. This might be a sign of structural problems at the committee.

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