New Mason-Dixon Poll: Hillary's High Negatives
Posted by wpcomimportuser1 | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
If Hillary Clinton is basking in the glow of the universally rave reviews from last night's debate, this new national survey from Mason-Dixon should bring her back to earth.
The poll doesn't provide any horse race numbers, but it does look at the favorability and electability of the current field of candidates, both of which present major issues for Clinton. First, the favorable ratings:
Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
Giuliani: 43/17 (+26)
Obama: 36 /21 (+15)
Thompson: 25/12 (+13)
McCain: 33/28 (+5)
Edwards: 32/28 (+4)
Romney: 24/20 (+4)
Richardson: 19/15 (+4)
Huckabee: 16 /12 (+4)
Bloomberg: 20/18 (+2)
Biden: 21/20 (+1)
Clinton: 39/42 (-3)
In addition to being the only candidate registering a negative net fav/unfav rating, Clinton also finished last among those who recognized a candidate's name but had a "neutral" opinion of them (neither favorable nor unfavorable). Only 19% had a neutral opinion of Clinton, while Obama topped the neutral category with 41%. Giuliani & McCain tied for 2nd at 38%.
On the question of electability, Mason-Dixon phrased the question this way:
I am going to read that list of names again. This time, I want you to assume that person is the 2008 presidential nominee of their political party. Please tell me if, today, you would or would not consider voting for them as the next President of the United States.
"Would" means that you would at least consider voting for that candidate depending upon circumstances, while "Would not" means that you would not vote for them under any circumstances.
The results were as follows:
Would/Would Not
Giuliani 64/36 (+28)
Thompson 62/38 (+24)
Bloomberg 61/39 (+22)
Obama 60/40 (+20)
Edwards 59/41 (+18)
McCain 58/42 (+16)
Biden 57/43 (+14)
Richardson 57/43 (+14)
Huckabee 56/44 (+12)
Romney 54/46 (+8)
Clinton 48/52 (-4)
Again, Hillary finishes last - this time by a mile.
The results from the Mason-Dixon poll help bring a bit of perspective back to both the national polls and to the recent general election match-ups which show Clinton moving into a small lead over Giuliani and maintaining a bit larger lead over Fred Thompson.
I think most observers agree 2008 is shaping up to be a favorable political climate for the Democrats. But as the Mason-Dixon poll shows, Hillary is saddled with such high negatives and such fixed public perceptions that have hardened over the course of nearly two decades in the national spotlight, she has very limited upside no matter how hard the political winds blow in her party's favor.
Are Democrats really going to put their best opportunity to win the White House in recent memory in the hands of woman who more than half the country says they won't vote for? And if the answer is "no," at what point in the race will that decision begin to manifest itself in the polls with, most likely, the ascension of Barack Obama?

