The Times of London reported over the weekend that John McCain "may drop out of the 2008 race by September if his fundraising dries up and his poll ratings continue to drop, according to Republican insiders."

The only insider named and quoted, however, is Tom Edmonds, leaving reporter Sarah Baxter's story resting on somewhat shaky foundations. Nevertheless, looking at the McCain campaign today few would argue that it's a fine, nothing-to-see-here model of how to win a nomination.

Indeed, McCain has problems, but the comment given to Baxter from the campaign, though spin, is also sound: "Reports of his death are greatly exaggerated. We're in the precampaign phase when everybody is trying hysterically to read the tea leaves, but after September the lights will go on and everybody will see that we've got a candidate who has stood before, doesn't need on-the-job training and has the resources to compete."

When you're a candidate of McCain's stature, you don't drop-out before the first vote is cast. Money might certainly be a problem for McCain going into the fall, but he'll have enough to last the first round of primaries.

The story also cites some bad polling data for McCain, so let's check the current RCP Averages:

National:
Giuliani 26.1
F. Thompson 19
McCain 15
Romney 10
Gingrich 7.2

Iowa:
Romney 21.4
Giuliani 18
McCain 16.6
Thompson 10.5
Gingrich 6.3

New Hampshire:
Romney 27.3
Giuliani 17.7
McCain 17.7
Thompson 10.7

South Carolina:
Giuliani 20.3
McCain 17.5
Thompson 14.3
Romney 10.3
Gingrich 8.7

Florida:
Giuliani 31
Thompson 17.3
McCain 11.3
Romney 11.3

With these numbers in mind, let's turn to Michael Barone, who today says his reading of the polls tells him the Republican race is still "fluid." Why? "One reason is that none of the candidates matches, or has matched until very recently, the issue preferences of the conservative Republican base." Barone goes on to say that at this point, Republican voters are basically where Democrats were in 2003-4: Looking for a candidate with "electability."

In other words, if there were an undisputed frontrunner in the GOP race and if the electoral prospects of the party were better than they are, reports of McCain's death, to use his campaign's description, might not be exaggerated. But because neither is the case, it's too early to say any of the top-tier will be out by autumn.