Clinton's Achilles Heel

Senator Clinton continues to maintain a double-digit lead over Senator Obama in the national polls (+11% in the LAT/Bloomberg and +12% in the latest Rasmussen), but will her exceedingly high unfavorables begin to hurt her among likely Democratic voters as we move closer to the actual primaries? In general election matchups versus the top tier Republicans, Clinton now regularly underperforms Obama. The question then becomes whether a Democratic electorate that is desperate for a Presidential win after two excruciatingly close election losses will begin to care more about Clinton's underperformance in the general election polls.

The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll addressed the subject:

Obama appears to be more electable than his primary rivals. One problem for Clinton in a general election campaign may be voters other than her Democratic base who could not vote for her. For example, when paired in a general election match-up with the top three Republican candidates -- McCain, Giuliani and Romney -- Clinton just receives the support of between 3% and 6% of Republicans.

Included in the 18% of all Democratic primary voters who said that they could not vote for Hillary Clinton under any circumstances, are roughly a quarter of independents who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus said they, too, could not vote for Clinton under any circumstance. For Obama, just 5% of Democratic primary voters, including 4% of independents who would not vote for him.

In the head-to-head RCP Averages, Senator Clinton runs a not insignificant 4-5 points worse than Senator Obama against Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. The general election differential is even more pronounced in the LA Times/Bloomberg poll where Obama shows leads of 5 -16 points against Giuliani, McCain and Romney, versus Clinton who trails all three Republicans by 2-10 points. (Thompson was not included in the LA Times/Bloomberg head-to-heads.)

This all comes back to Hillary Clinton's extremely high unfavorables. If these head-to-head matchups with the leading GOP candidates continue to show Senator Obama or other Democratic candidates running significantly better in the general election, it could have a significant impact on Democratic primary voters who are in no mood for another bitter disappointment next November.

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