A McLaughlin & Associates poll released today makes that Rasmussen poll showing Fred Thompson in second place not seem as such an outlier after all. Here are the M&A numbers (the differences in parenthesis are taken from a 4/15 poll):

Giuliani: 24 (-4)
Thompson: 18 (+5)
McCain: 17 (+1)
Romney: 7 (-1)
Gingrich: 5 (-1)

Then there's this:

Among moderate Republicans, Thompson's support has increased by 14 points (4% to 18%), while Giuliani's support has decreased significantly (37% to 29%). McCain (19% to 16%) and Romney (8% to 3%) have also lost support among moderate Republicans. Giuliani shows a slight loss among conservative Republicans (25% to 22%), while Thompson (16% to 18%), McCain (14% to 16%) and Romney (8% to 10%) show slight gains.

Considering the kind of Republican Giuliani is and how this race has gone so far, you probably wouldn't have predicted Giuliani losing the most support among moderate Republicans, especially to Thompson.

In the updated RCP Average, Thompson, however, still clings to third place:

Giuliani: 27.2
McCain: 16.5
Thompson: 12.7
Romney: 10.2
Gingrich: 8.2

What of course diminishes Thompson's strong and surprising showing in the Rasmussen and M&A polls are the ABC/Washington Post and USA Today/Gallup polls, both of which had McCain and Thompson at 19% and 11%, respectively. Two outliers, it seems, but which two?

This doesn't answer the mystery, but Pew Research also released a survey today measuring voters who say there's a "good chance" or "some chance" in voting for a particular candidate. Again, Thompson places second, with both he and Giuliani recording 37% "good chance" with 39% "some chance" for Giuliani and 29% "some chance" for Thompson. Giuliani also beat Thompson on the "no chance" with 20% compared to Thompson's 24%.

And so again, just before the next GOP debate in which he will not be on stage, Fred Thompson's shadow looms large.