Poll are already open in Kentucky, and we won't know until later tonight whether Governor Ernie Fletcher is going to break through the 40% barrier in the Republican primary to avoid a runoff against Anne Northup.

A SurveyUSA poll released last night shows Fletcher at 44%, Northup at 34%, and businessman Billy Harper in third place at 17% with 5% undecided. A Bluegrass Poll taken May 10-15 had Fletcher at 41%, Northup at 26%, and Harper at 10%.

Peter Slevin of the Washington Post has a great in-depth story on the Republican primary, including a look at why Fletcher's rebound "has been little short of remarkable."

On the Democratic side, a runoff seems even more likely. Steve Beshear, a former Lt. Gov and attorney general, is at 32% in the SurveyUSA poll, followed by businessman Bruce Lunsford at 23%. The race was even tighter in the Bluegrass Poll with Beshear at 27% and Lunsford at 21%.