Quinnipiac is out with results from three states:

Florida
Democrats
Clinton 36
Gore 15
Obama 13
Edwards 11
Undecided 14

Republicans
Giuliani 38
McCain 15
Romney 7
Gingrich 6
F. Thompson 5
Undecided 21

Head to Head Matchups
Clinton 41 - Giuliani 49
Clinton 45 - McCain 45
Clinton 48 - Thompson 38

Obama 38 - Giuliani 49
Obama 41 - McCain 41
Obama 42 - Thompson 35

Gore 43 - Giuliani 47
Gore 46 - McCain 43
Gore 48 - Thompson 36

Ohio
Democrats
Clinton 37
Edwards 17
Obama 14
Gore 11
Undecided 14

Republicans
Giuliani 23
McCain 21
Gingrich 9
F. Thompson 8
Romney 6
Undecided 23

Head to Head Matchups
Clinton 41 - Giuliani 46
Clinton 42 - McCain 44
Clinton 45 - Thompson 35

Obama 37 - Giuliani 45
Obama 36 - McCain 42
Obama 44 - Thompson 31

Gore 39 - Giuliani 47
Gore 39 - McCain 46
Gore 44 - Thompson 35

Pennsylvania
Democrats
Clinton 36
Obama 14
Gore 14
Edwards 13
Undecided 16

Republicans
Giuliani 29
McCain 17
Gingrich 10
F. Thompson 6
Romney 5
Undecided 21

Head to Head Matchups
Clinton 43 - Giuliani 47
Clinton 43 - McCain 45
Clinton 47 - Thompson 36

Obama 41 - Giuliani 45
Obama 43 - McCain 41
Obama 45 - Thompson 33

Gore 44 - Giuliani 44
Gore 45 - McCain 42
Gore 48 - Thompson 34

As the Democratic candidates arrive in South Carolina for tonight's debate they'll only have about six minutes of speaking time to make their case to the audience, not enough time to score many points but enough to overhaul their public image, writes The Politico's Ben Smith. Barack Obama's goal should be to show there's "substance under the sizzle," according to Democratic strategist Bob Shrum. While Obama is the "most famous orator of the group," his 2004 debates were "by most accounts, unremarkable." In the same year John Edwards stayed out of the Democratic crossfire, and Sen. Hillary Clinton has prepared more for debates than her rivals against Republicans, and in the last one she came across as "well-prepared and at ease, if not dominant."

The Hill's Sam Youngman writes that last week's Supreme Court partial-birth abortion ruling as well as gun control could be part of the opening questions volley and Democrats may face the "precarious balancing act" between state and national voters. Clinton will almost surely be asked about her thoughts on the likelihood of Democrats succeeding to get President Bush to accept a timeline for Iraq withdrawal. The New York Sun's Russell Berman reports that Clinton said, "I think that it will be extremely challenging, if at all possible. We're going to keep trying, but at some point we don't want Democrats being blamed for our troops not being well-equipped, not having the resources they need..."

Yesterday's presidential kickoff from John McCain began with a "thinly veiled critique of the Bush administration," in which he pledged to "restore competence to foreign and domestic policy and welcome compromise with Democrats," writes the New York Times' Adam Nagourney and Michael Cooper. McCain later said Attorney General Alberto Gonzales should resign "out of loyalty" to Bush.

Bush isn't the only Republican getting criticized by McCain: Rudy Giuliani is taking heat on Iraq from McCain backers who claim he's dodging the issue, reports the New York Observer's Jason Horowitz.

Giuliani is also getting hit on abortion by Mitt Romney, who in an interview with The Politico said "there's a lot more to being pro-life beyond appointing conservative justices," including sex education, the morning-after pill, all as a part of encouraging a "culture of life rather than the culture of death." This week Romney started to air $2 million worth of ads, most of the national ones on Fox News and others in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Finally, DNC Chair Howard Dean criticized press coverage of presidential campaigns and suggested that candidates be invited to meetings and the press be barred from them. In regards to the primary races, Dean is warning that states will be punished for moving their primaries ahead of Feb. 5 and candidates who step foot in those states. Early states wouldn't collect delegates and scofflaw candidates would have their delegates reapportioned to all other delegates in the given states.

Get these and today's other elections stories at RCP's Politics and Elections page.

That was fast. The Sun-Times broke the story about Barack Obama's relationship with Tony Rezko on Monday, but I think we may have already reached the point where Obama's reaction to the story is drawing more attention than the particulars of the story itself. Carol Marin, a reporter for NBC 5 and a columnist for the Sun-Times, puts the boot in today:

Barack Obama tells us he is the messenger of a new kind of politics.

Open. Transparent. Different.

But put the pedal to the metal and ask Illinois' junior senator new and serious questions about his radioactive, federally indicted, former friend Antoin "Tony" Rezko, and suddenly this gleaming presidential hopeful and paragon of new politics behaves just like any other dissembling, dismissive Chicago pol, ducking the discussion while pretending not to.

Read the rest.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Tribune runs a somewhat unflattering report on Obama's history of charitable giving which begins this way:

Giving, service and compassion are recurrent themes on the campaign trail for Sen. Barack Obama, but the Democratic presidential contender has only recently dug deep into his own pockets to support charitable causes.

Lastly, Maureen Dowd questions whether it's smart for Michelle Obama to publicly chide her husband as a "mere mortal" for things like not putting his socks in the dirty hamper. Dowd writes:

Many people I talked to afterward found Michelle wondrous. But others worried that her chiding was emasculating, casting her husband -- under fire for lacking experience -- as an undisciplined child. [snip]

But it may not be smart politics to mock him in a way that turns him from the glam J.F.K. into the mundane Gerald Ford, toasting his own English muffins. If all Senator Obama is peddling is the Camelot mystique, why debunk the mystique?

And Dowd makes another point, which circles back to touch on the Sun-Times story as well:

Michelle conveys the appealing idea that she will tell her husband when he's puffed up or out of line. She aims high -- she ordered her husband to stop puffing on cigarettes as he started campaigning. But then, why didn't she see the red flags on the Rezko deal?

All in all, not a very good day for Obama as far as the media is concerned.

Over the next couple days, candidates on both sides will be more visible to the public as Democrats gather in South Carolina ahead of tomorrow's debate while Sen. John McCain officially announces for president today in New Hampshire.

Democrats will kickoff a large tour of South Carolina with tomorrow's debate, which isn't "do or die for any of the eight," reports the Greenville News' Dan Hoover, but could help Sens. Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama move past each other or help another candidate join the two at the top. The State's Lee Bandy writes that Democrats are in an upbeat mood. Large crowds are expected this week for the candidates' debate, Friday's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner and Saturday's state Democratic convention. In "sharp contrast," the state's Republicans are in a "big funk right now. They have little to cheer about. The GOP, they fear, has lost its way."

Overlooked but not unimportant is Rep. James Clyburn's annual fish fry, reports the Wall Street Journal's Amy Schatz, which is considered important for Democrats to gain Clyburn's endorsement. Clinton and Obama will attend, as will Edwards, who didn't show in 2003, which "apparently didn't go over terribly well with the host by some accounts and Clyburn's much-sought-after endorsement went to Sen. John Kerry."

The New York Observer's Jason Horowtiz reports that Al Gore supporters, especially Donna Brazile, say he probably won't run, but if he does, they'll support him. As for comments by Bill Clinton and James Carville that Gore might run, Brazile said, "They want him to make the Shermanesque statement that he is not running, period. Because if you look at the polls...[Gore] draws support from Mrs. Clinton, and a little bit from Edwards and Obama. But a lot from her. So I'm sure that's the reason why."

On the GOP side, McCain and his supporters are finding that New Hampshire is "politically very different" than the same state one he won in 2000, writes The Politico's Jonathan Martin. That year the primary was open to independents and a lackluster Democratic primary drove many of them to vote for McCain. Next year the primary may just include Republicans, but ironically this may make the primary a "test of support within the GOP base. There are signs that McCain and his team have learned from their rookie mistakes, as they highlight the senator's ardent support for a war that every New Hampshire observer contacted for this story said would not hurt him in the state's primary."

Meanwhile McCain's campaign has replaced its finance director, while Mitt Romney's deputy campaign manager resigned, citing familial obligations but coming after a report that the FBI is looking into his old boss, Rep. Tom Feeney for 2003 trips with Jack Abramoff.

Rudy Giuliani made news yesterday by saying if America is on defense in the War on Terror, as it would be with a Democratic president, "we will have more losses and it will go on longer," reports The Politico's Roger Simon. Elsewhere, Giuliani said he didn't "know the answer" to the question of whether the Iraq surge was working and declined to give the circumstances in which he would withdraw from Iraq.

Lastly, Fred Thompson will provide regular commentary on ABC News' Internet radio site, while his "Law & Order" co-star Sam Waterston told CNN he thinks Thompson will run for president.

Get these and today's other elections stories at RCP's Politics and Elections page.

Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) temporarily stepped down from two more House committees today, having already stepped down from one last week after the FBI raided his wife's insurance business. The investigation entails a land deal from Roberta Renzi that might have benefited a fellow business associate and campaign donor.

Two quick developments from this: First, Renzi has told House Minority Leader John Boehner that he wished to be dropped from the GOP's Retain Our Majority Program, which is designed to protect the party's most vulnerable incumbents, reports the Politico's Patrick O'Connor.

Also, as the Politico notes elsewhere, Democrats are wasting no time dusting off their "culture of corruption" theme they campaigned on last year. Democrats hope to add Renzi's troubles to an FBI raid of Rep. John Doolittle's home in Northern Virginia as well as the ongoing U.S. attorney scandal to a spring offensive, reports Jeff Patch and O'Connor.

"Our intention is to keep our foot on the gas as the party of reform," said Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average very near 13,000, the title of our January 4, 2007 Wall Street Journal Op-Ed - "Dow 14,000 on Tap" - no longer elicits wide-eyed reactions, like it did a few months ago.

The skeptics became even more emphatic after the sharp drop in equity prices that occurred in late February and early March. At that point, some were even talking of a new "global bear market," caused at least partly by a recession in the US.

But the US stock market, and much of the globe, has reversed course and boomed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a new all-time high last Friday, and is up 7.6% from its recent bottom on March 5, 2006. During this same time frame, the S&P 500 jumped 8.0%, while the Nasdaq rose 7.9%.

While it's impossible to explain every zig and zag in financial markets, the recent run-up seems to be based on strong reported earnings and clear evidence that the economy is not falling into recession, as many feared.

On the earnings front, through Friday, 134 of the S&P 500 companies had reported. The results are interesting. So far, 66.4% of reporting companies had positive earnings surprises - a nice improvement from last quarter. While earnings growth has slowed to just 5.2% on a year-over-year basis, all the positive surprises suggest analysts are underestimating both micro- and macro-forces.

The micro-force is productivity growth, as companies ride a wave of new technology. At the same time, there are two important macro-forces. First, global growth is on a tear as capitalism and freedom spread. Second, the US economy refuses to be toppled.

Pessimists continue to argue that productivity growth is slowing, or will slow for good very soon. But the technology boom continues. And while it is true that productivity growth has waned in recent quarters, this appears to be driven by slightly weaker GDP growth due to a housing correction. Employment growth remains robust. As in 1995, we expect this slowdown to be temporary. The negative impact from sub-prime foreclosures is overblown.

Moreover, the global economy is experiencing its fourth year in a row of spectacular growth. Given the international focus of many US companies, this global growth is boosting returns even while the domestic economy slows.

Finally, our models - based on overall corporate profits and a conservative estimate of the current discount rate - continue to show that the broad US stock market is 20 to 25% undervalued.

Tax rates remain low, Fed policy is still accommodative, global growth is strong, and technology remains a major force. As a result, corporate profits and economic activity will continue to expand more rapidly than conventional wisdom predicts.

While tempted to raise it, we will stick with our original forecast for now. Dow 14,000 remains on tap.

Whether Fred Thompson intended it, his recent op-eds appearing in a variety of conservative publications and Web sites have touched on themes dear to conservatives: strong national defense; free-market economics; and, Thompson's latest appearing in Townhall, the primacy of federalism in our constitutional system. (A possible fourth theme would be what is known as traditional, or social, conservatism.)

Yesterday's Townhall op-ed, which is something of a continuation of a National Review op-ed from Monday, is interesting, because it's one of the first instances where Thompson seems to be defending his conservative credentials, rather than simply stating his beliefs, from a critique by NR senior editor Ramesh Ponnuru. The issue is Thompson's opposition to tort reform during his Senate days, which greatly angered conservatives at the time. As Thompson notes, he was the only senator to vote against a "good Samaritan" law that would have protected people who willingly assist others in need from civil action.

Thompson writes:

Now I can assure you that I have nothing against good Samaritans. If a person stops to help someone in distress on the highway and something bad happens, generally, the good Samaritan should not be sued by some overly ambitious trial lawyer. But states are, and have been for years, perfectly capable of handling this burning issue -- as well as all of the sub-issues that are raised, such as who should be protected as a good Samaritan. What if he was intoxicated and made a slight misstep while applying medical relief? What if he was not impaired, but made a gross error and turns a minor problem into a significant one? You get the idea. This is traditionally state law stuff. Is this really something the federal government should involve itself in?

Conservatives will have to judge for themselves the merits of Thompson's arguments. But what we're witnessing here is the rare instance of a potential presidential candidate debating political philosophy with the some of the nation's top conservatives (in this case, NR's Ramesh Ponnuru), as opposed to rival candidates. And it's a substantive debate -- not the usual aide-written stuff most candidates slap their name to. My guess is that conservatives will love this, whether they agree with Thompson or not, because so few candidates are willing (or able) to do it.

It's also a good strategy in that Thompson needs to show that despite his absence from the political scene he's still very much a student of politics and not just an actor who saw politics as a diversion.

Via Hotline on Call, here's NBC 5 Chicago's coverage of Sen. Barack Obama, who was back home yesterday, and his ties to indicted real estate mogul Tony Rezko:

As Hotline's Marc Ambinder notes, the reporter's claim that Obama "went out of his way to avoid answering questions" related to Rezko is a bit of an unfair hit, since Obama was talking to the Sun-Times.

Fred Thompson hasn't decided whether to run for president, but he's committed to headlining a major Virginia GOP fundraiser in June and addressing a dinner for a Florida bar association two weeks from now. These appearances indicate that Thompson is popular enough to draw a crowd of Republican faithful who are willing to plunk down dollars to at least hear him speak. Some will see Thompson's popularity and speeches to Republicans as more an effort to gain PR than the party's nomination, but the same was said about Rudy Giuliani a year ago and proved not to be true.

The real test will be the crowds' reactions, especially that of Virginia Republicans who must be melancholy after losing the last two gubernatorial elections and seeing their own presumptive presidential candidate, George Allen, self-destruct in last year's Senate race.

There's less horserace and more policy in today's news after two candidates delivered major policy addresses yesterday.

In Chicago, Barack Obama accused President Bush of weakening America's global leadership and repeated the call for total withdrawal from Iraq by next March, reports the Chicago Tribune's Mike Dorning. Obama also called for the addition of 60,000 Army soldiers and 27,000 Marines and for doubling foreign aid to total $50 billion by 2012. The full speech can be read here.

The Wall Street Journal's Deborah Soloman looks at Obama's economic policy where he's open to using government intervention in markets to "further core Democratic goals, though careful to avoid hard-edged liberal rhetoric," such as his "Health Care For Hybrids" bill in the Senate that assists car companies with their health-care costs in return for hybrid production. In the Senate Obama has "voted against a trade agreement and backs policies that redistribute income by taking revenue from the wealthiest to fund programs" for lower-level households.

However, health care remains the big issue among Democrats and Obama hasn't settled on specifics, though he is looking for ways to drive down costs, "possibly by creating state or national health-care pools" and incentivizing electronic record-keeping.

Obama's rise as a candidate has made a number of black elected officials in New York undecided about whether to back him or Hillary Clinton, writes the New York Times' Raymond Hernandez. The officials are impressed with Obama's campaign so far and the Clinton team is trying to secure black support by dispatching Bill Clinton to speak to minority lawmakers and activists, as well as getting heavyweights Bill Lynch and Rep. Charlie Rangel to court black leaders.

Elsewhere, Obama said he didn't know tenements owned by Chicago landlord and Obama contributor Tony Rezko were in disrepair during his time as a state senator and attorney, the Chicago Sun-Times' Tim Novak reports, after he investigated the two's relationship. "Should I have known these buildings were in a state of disrepair? My answer would be that it wasn't brought to my attention," Obama said. "As far as I can tell, we were never contacted by Rezko tenants."

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain detailed his energy policy that would support energy-conserving technology, lift the tariff on ethanol imports and build more nuclear power plants. McCain also targeted Venezuela, Iran and al Qaeda as profiting from oil purchases.

The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports that the McCain team is "restructuring his fundraising schedule to woo mid-level political donors," who contribute less than $100, and give fundraising and organizational roles to supporters under 45 to rejuvenate the campaign.

As McCain and Rudy Giuliani engage in a popularity contest, Mitt Romney is making himself the race's "prime message/issue candidate," writes Marc Ambinder at Hotline On Call. The tactic also allows him to not say why he used to believe in more liberal ideas because now he can "respond by pulling out a sheaf of new proposals." The Politico's Kenneth Vogel reports that the GOP's main issue's man, Newt Gingrich, isn't running yet, but he's hired a fundraiser and pollster.

Get these and today's other elections stories at RCP's Politics and Elections page.