A new Quinnipiac poll of '08 preferences in the state of New Jersey:

Democrats
Clinton 30
Obama 16
Gore 11
Edwards 8
Kerry 6
Biden 6
Undecided 17

Republicans
Giuliani 39
McCain 21
Gingrich 11
Romney 5
Undecided 13

Head to head match ups:

Clinton 41 - Giuliani 48
Clinton 43 - McCain 44
Clinton 53 - Romney 29

Obama 39 - McCain 42
Edwards 39 - McCain 45

Favorable/unfavorable ratings:

Democrats
Clinton 53/38
Obama 41/9
Edwards 44/23

Repbulicans
McCain 52/24
Giuliani 63/24
Romney 11/12

Some thoughts: Giuliani's strength in New Jersey is obvious, McCain's less so. McCain seems to be enjoying some residual "maverick" magic from the 2000 campaign: he beats Clinton among Independents by 12 points in the head to head match up (48 to 36) and his fav/unfav rating with Independents is a hefty 60/19.

But those numbers are unlikely to hold up when you consider 1) that the media (and the NY Times in particular) hasn't begun to savage McCain in a systematic way as they most certainly will do in a general election and 2) how NJ voters feel about the war. President Bush's job approval in NJ is 26% (23% among I's), Bush's handling of the war in Iraq is at 23% (19% among I's), 63% of NJ voters are now against having gone to war in the first place (66% of I's) and 69% oppose the President's idea of surging troops (68% of I's).

Put those two things together and you can see why so much hinges on what happens in Iraq over the next few months.

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