In an interview with the Miami Herald, Clay Shaw says that he might have avoided defeat if Rumsfeld had been let go prior to the election:

A speedier sacking of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld might have salvaged the campaigns of Republicans who lost during this week's rout of the GOP, a somber Rep. Clay Shaw said Friday as he grappled to understand his first election loss in 35 years.

Shaw, a Fort Lauderdale Republican who had withstood a series of tough elections, was defeated Tuesday by state Sen. Ron Klein, who repeatedly sought to link Shaw's fortunes to those of President Bush and his hand-ling of the war in Iraq. At least 27 other Republican House members lost their seats as voters signaled discontent with GOP rule -- handing control of the U.S. House and Senate to Democrats for the first time in 12 years.

But the loss came as a shock to the campaign veteran who said internal polling consistently showed him ahead of Klein.

''My guess is it was . . . the tide rolling across the whole country and we got caught up in it,'' a reflective -- and at times bitter -- Shaw said Friday during an hourlong interview in his Fort Lauderdale congressional office, his wife, Emilie, at his side. Shaw noted Republicans were dealing with sex and corruption scandals and a military death toll in Iraq that topped 100 in October. 'I think that was laying heavily in voters' minds.''

Shaw said he shared his belief about Rumsfeld's departure with Karl Rove, President Bush's chief political strategist -- who called Shaw on Friday and told him ``the race he was most concerned about was mine, and that he felt very badly about losing me.''

Rove told him that Rumsfeld wasn't let go until after the election because the president ''didn't want our soldiers to come off with the impression that he was doing that for political purposes, just to get a leg up on this election,'' Shaw said.

Shaw said he agreed it was critical that the troops ''don't feel they're being politicized,'' but said he wished Rumsfeld's ouster had happened sooner.

''My first impression was the actual votes I needed would have been there,'' Shaw said. ``I think the Republicans would have been a little more energized. . . .''

It's really hard to say what sort of effect firing Don Rumsfeld before the election might have had. It may have kept more independents with Republicans, but I suspect it also might have energized Democrats and demoralized some conservatives as well. If Bush wanted to signal a change and not have the decision look political, he should have let Rumsfeld go either last year or at the beginning of this year.

In retrospect, it looks like one of the smarter political moves the Democrats may have made this election season was to call for Rumsfeld's head in back in May. By doing that, Democrats effectively closed the window on making a change at the Pentagon. For Bush to let Rumsfeld go after the Democrats' call for his resignation would have looked like total capitulation. Plus, Democrats knew that Bush's stubbornness and sense of loyalty would kick in, making it that much more likely Bush would stick it out with Rummy.