I think one of the reasons many in the press, political analysts included, buy into the theory Republicans will get wiped out this year is they look at the deteriorating situation in Iraq and think: "How can the Republicans not get killed?" And there is no question that working against the GOP big time is the reality that Iraq is demonstrably worse than it was in 2004. And by worse, I mean the odds for U.S. success were considerably better in 2004 than they are today. But the Beltway culture and attitude toward the war isn't the same as the rest of the country and in 2004 that mindset helped create the conventional wisdom that President Bush was going to lose to John Kerry. I suspect the same attitude toward the war today facilitates the ease with which reporters and Washington analysts jack up projections of huge Democratic gains.

But because the media has been so negative on Iraq for years now I don't know that the Democrats, from a political standpoint these last few weeks, are reaping all the rewards they might otherwise have received. Take the New York Times for example. On a scale of 1 -10, with 10 being that Iraq is an utter disaster, they have been reporting Iraq as an 8 or a 9 almost from the beginning.

So now when the status in Iraq has objectively worsened, where do they go to amp their coverage? I'm sure "Pinch" Sulzberger, in true Spinal Tap spirit, is desperately looking for the knob that takes the negativity up to eleven, but they are just about maxed out. In other words, from a political standpoint the qualitative erosion of the situation in Iraq over the last 2-3 months may not be yielding the corresponding equal public relations effect one might expect.

And so in the month before an election when the public sees endless stories about the disaster in Iraq, many just roll their eyes. Again, this is not an argument that Iraq is not hurting Republicans, it clearly is. My point is it may not be hurting the GOP as much as DC-media types think it should, or will.

The other reason Iraq perhaps isn't killing Republicans as much as it could is because Democrats are nowhere to be seen on the issue. Iraq is unquestionably the biggest issue facing the country and the Democrats, to put it nicely, have punted. And they punted because there was no way for them to reconcile the netroots/Lamont faction of the party with more common-sense leaders like Joe Biden or Joe Lieberman. Heck, the netroots side kicked Joe Lieberman out of the party in August.

In September, the White House had found a way to frame the war debate around wiretapping and extracting information from terrorists and it was working to help Republicans, but the Foley scandal blew that carefully orchestrated plan right out of the water. With only two weeks left, it remains unclear how the final news cycle will play out. There is numbness among the public to the situation in Iraq, people know in their gut that it is not going well and ultimately President Bush and Congress have to answer for that, but they are far from sure that Nancy Pelosi is the right answer. Iraq helps the Democrats, but how much, we will find out on Election Day.

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