A Few Race Updates

In case you missed these on RCP's front page here are some updates in close races in the battle for the House and Senate.

Tennessee Senate: Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford (D)

Ford, who has run a very strong campaign to date, appears to have made his first serious mistake with an ill-advised attempt to crash a Bob Corker press conference Friday in Memphis. You can watch the WMC Memphis TV coverage of this here "Harold Ford Junior Crashes Corker Presser." Corker appears to get the best of this confrontation and this is the kind of thing that can make a difference in a race as close as this one. Ford's bid in the InTrade market has fallen below 40 for the first time in quite a while.

Florida 22: Clay Shaw (R)* vs. Ron Klein (D)

Shaw's seat is a very competitive district that went 52% - 48% in the presidential race for the Democrat in both 2000 and 2004. After one of the closest House races in the country in 2000, Republicans in redistricting removed the Miami-Dade portion which Shaw lost 67%-33% in 2000. With a more favorable district he won handily in both 2002 and 2004 with over 60% of the vote.
This race had been high up on Democratic target lists but looks to have slipped as the campaign has entered the final stretch. Klein probably would have won this district how it was drawn in 2000, but running in the current 2006 lines he looks likely to come up a little short.

Pennsylvania 7: Curt Weldon (R)* vs. Joe Sestak (D)

Weldon, like his Pennsylvania colleague Don Sherwood is in a world of trouble. Of the three GOP Philadelphia suburban districts that the Democrats had set their sights on this cycle Weldon's seat had always thought to be the one least likely to flip, today it is the most likely. After Don Sherwood and Jeff Hostettler, Weldon is now the most vulnerable incumbent on RCP's list. Whatever the merit of Weldon and his daughter's situation with Russian business deals, the sight of FBI agents carting boxes out of your daughter's apartment three weeks from an election where you are in a very close race is not good news. Weldon is a fighter and his problems are not as acute as Sherwood's in PA-10, but his district is a Democratic-trending district that voted 51% for Gore in 2000 and 53% for Kerry in 2004. We think Weldon is in trouble here in 2006.

Pennsylvania 10: Don Sherwood (R)* vs. Chris Carney (D)

President Bush was here on Thursday trying to give Sherwood a boost in the home stretch. Sherwood has big, big troubles but this is a Republican district that gave Bush 60% just two years ago. Santorum's people will be in here hard which may spill over and help Sherwood on the margins, but were skeptical that he can pull this race out.

Connecticut 4: Chris Shays (R)* vs. Diane Farrell

Hard to believe that Democrats have a very good shot at capturing the House even though they might not win any of the three Connecticut House races they have targeted for over a year. Shays is generally considered to be thought the most vulnerable GOP incumbent of the three CT seats in play (CT-2, CT-4, CT-5); however Shays is running an energized campaign and appears to be benefiting significantly from Lieberman's strong Independent run. Shays raised $840,000 this last quarter eclipsing the record set by his opponent Diane Farrell earlier this year. This race will in all likelihood be a total toss up until the end. Ironically Ned Lamont may be the little bit that keeps this seat in the GOP column.

New York 26: Tom Reynolds (R)* vs. Jack Davis (D)

Reynolds looks to have stabilized his situation a little, but Foley has placed this race fully in play. The GOP appears to be running better in House races everywhere in the Northeast (CT and NH), except upstate New York. Republicans are going to lose seats in New York, Reynolds is hoping they keep it contained to Sherwood Boehlert's open seat in New York 24, because if there is another one to go down he is next in line.

Colorado 4: Marilyn Musgrave (R)* vs. Angie Paccione (D)

Even though this a relatively conservative district having delivered 58% for President Bush in 2004 Musgrave was always considered a potentially vulnerable incumbent because she only pulled 51% in 2004 after originally winning the seat with 55% in 2002. This race is currently #28 on RCP's House list and may have to drop lower if Musgrave continues to poll as impressively as she has in the last two public survey which both show her with 10 point leads. The DCCC pulled a significant amount of ad support for the Democratic challenger about two weeks ago which might have shut the door on Paccione's upset hopes.

Illinois 8: Dave McSweeney (R) vs. Melissa Bean (D)*

The Chicago Tribune poll is bad news for McSweeney, and while there is no question this race is considerably closer than 19 points, Bean has made the right votes in this district in her first term to assure Republican-leaning business types she can be a Democrat they can work with. RNC polling in this race shows McSweeney only down two, but today you would have to give the edge to the incumbent Bean.

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