A new poll in the hotly contested CT-2 race gives GOP incumbent Rob Simmons a small two point lead, 46% - 44%. We have an updated analysis on this race:

Rob Simmons in Connecticut 2 is not a guy who is being caught by surprise that he is in a tough race. Kerry and Gore both got 54% in his district, and he is regularly targeted as a prime pickup target by Democrats. This year is no exception. Simmons was extremely visible in the fight to save the New London sub base in his district and he is using that dramatic success very effectively in the campaign against Courtney.

A just-released poll by the University of Connecticut gives Simmons a small two point lead. Lieberman's likely substantial victory over Democrat Ned Lamont (he leads Lamont by 12.2% in the latest RCP Average) is also working to help Simmons on the margins as well as the very popular Republican Gov. Jodi Rell who is cruising to reelection.

This race continues to drop on our list of competitive house seats and is currently ranked #22.