This is a project I hope to do more thoroughly in the next couple of days -- but I thought I might just highlight some surprises I have found thus far on the Democratic side.

My "population" of Democratic seats thus far is the 18 Democratic challengers of Republican incumbents who populate Charlie Cook's toss-up category. The comparison is to those challengers of incumbents from 2004 who eventually raised the minimum amount of money to beat an incumbent that year ($1.5 million). I have not really had a chance to examine whether candidates in races considered to be marginal contests are on track to raise enough cash. This is the question that most interests me -- whether the FEC reports indicate that analysts are underestimating the current playing field. Nevertheless, here are some quick observations on these 18:

1. The average cash on hand for these 18 is about $250,000 larger than it was in 2004. So also is the median cash on hand. Overall, this group of challengers has a lot of money left for the final push.

2. The average total receipts for these 18 is about $450,000 larger than it was in 2004. So also is the median cash on hand. Overall, this group of challengers has been more adept at raising cash than the 2004 crop.

3. There are a few "stragglers" in terms of cash on hand -- some of which are surprising. Democratic challengers Joe Courtney in CT 02 and Steve Cranley in OH 01 have very little cash on hand left. Courtney only has about $210,000 in the bank. Cranley, believe it or not, only has $119,000 in the bank. I had to double check that figure. I just could not believe it. Their numbers are below both the median/mean of 2004 and 2006. This is especially surprising because they have raised more than the median/mean of 2004 and only a little less than 2006. This might be indicative of cash management troubles in these campaigns. I think this is bad news for Democrats in these races.

4. There are a few more "stragglers" in terms of funds raised. Joe Donnelly in IN 02, Brad Ellsworth in IN 08, Ken Lucas in KY 04, Chris Carney in PA 10 and Phil Kellam in VA 02 all have raised less than the mean/median of either 2006 or 2004. This, I think, is much less significant for Ellsworth and Carney because their opponents are, respectively, under-funded and under an informal public ethical scrutiny. They just need less cash because their opponents are, in varying respects, lousy. But I was very surprised to see Donnelly so under-funded, especially given the great poll numbers he has enjoyed. I know that Rahm Emanuel was working hard in the summer/fall to direct cash his way. But it might not matter against Chocola this year. I think the Democrats must be quite disappointed with both Lucas and Kellam -- who both face well-heeled opponents who do not have "baggage." Neither of them registered impressive fundraising totals by mid-Summer, and - while most of the underwhelming fundraisers in this 18 picked up the pace - these two continued to under perform.

If we take money to be a necessary, but insufficient, criterion for success - then this analysis probably dings Democratic prospects a little bit. 5 of these 18 candidates seem to have some problems. I think it could really matter for 4 of the 5.

However, the bigger question remains: how many Democratic challengers were able to do better-than-expected in terms of money? Are any marginal Democratic candidates in a position to come to the mainstream? Are these 5 the exception to a rule that will put a net of more seats on the table? I don't know yet. That will require a much more thorough sifting through the money data. Stay tuned.

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