On Friday in our updated analysis of the Minnesota Senate race we suggested that:

Kennedy's problems may be a warning sign for Minnesota Republicans in both the Governor's race and Kennedy's current House seat MN-6. Both of these races Republicans were felt to have the edge, but current polls indicate toss-ups.

Today the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has a new poll out giving DFL candidate Mike Hatch a 9-point lead over Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The Star-Tribune's polls typically skew towards the Dems; their final Senate poll in the Coleman-Mondale race in 2002 gave Mondale a 5-point lead, he ended up losing by 3. In 2004 their final poll had Kerry ahead by 8-points, he won by only three. And then finally in Pawlenty's first race for Governor in 2002 he did 5 points better on election day than the Star-Tribune's final poll.

All of this is meant to point out that the 9-point lead for Hatch is probably fairly overstated. The RCP Average currently has Hatch with a 2.3% lead, which we suspect is far closer to where this race truly stands. And while down 2.5% is better than being down nine, it's not great for a Governor that many were playing up as a possible VP candidate in 2008. If the wheels don't completely come off for the GOP in these last three weeks we suspect Pawlenty will still pull it out, but he clearly finds himself caught up in the national GOP problems.

This race and the Michigan Governor's race are data points that give you a good idea which way the political wind is blowing. Pawlenty who most felt was safe to hold his seat is now in a real dog fight to keep his job, and Granholm in Michigan looks like she has reestablished her footing in a race the GOP had high hopes for only 4-6 months ago.

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