That's the title of the new strategy memo by James Carville, Stan Greenberg, and Ana Iparraguirre of Democracy Corps based on new polling in the 49 most competitive Republican-held congressional districts. They write:

We do not often get to write such a report -- changes so large over such a short period that they certainly portend a whole new playing field for the November election. This survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted in only Republican-held seats, yet Democrats are ahead by 4 points overall in the named congressional vote (49 to 45 percent); indeed, they are ahead by 2 points (48 to 46 percent) in the bottom tier of presumably safest seats.

This vote represents a dramatic change in the state of the race over the last two weeks. The end of the Congress -- with the increased pessimism and anger about Iraq and the Foley scandal and subsequent partisan brawl -- has moved voters to shift their assessments of the parties and their votes. The 1994 election broke at the end; this one just broke. The shift is evident on every indicator -- party, Bush, war, intensity and morale.

The authors go on to say they believe Democrats "have a chance to consolidate gains large enough to affect congressional control over this decade." Read the rest of memo (pdf) and the full poll results (pdf) and judge credibility of that claim for yourself.

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