In last Thursday's "Election Analysis in a GOP Market Meltdown" I suggested:

I wouldn't put a lot of weight in any of them (the polls) until we see polling that has been in the field this Wednesday (Oct 4) and later.....the only thing I would say for certain is the political volatility has exploded, but I would sure be nervous if I was holding a lot of long GOP futures.

Well we now have five major media outlets out with polls, all in the field October 5th and later, and the RealClearPolitics Generic Average has moved 5.5% towards the Democrats, to a whopping 16.6% spread (chart). With four weeks until Election Day that can not be spun as good news for Republicans.

It's clear now that the Foley scandal has hurt Republicans in national Generic polling, what isn't clear is whether this movement will flow through to individual Senate, House and Governor races across the nation. Common-sense suggests that it will, what is unknown is the degree. What is also unknown is how much this is a temporary drop due to the intensely negative media coverage.

I do think the generic numbers will move back towards the Republicans rather soon and I also am skeptical as to how much this negativity towards Republicans, generically, will flow through to individual races. But in a midterm election where motivating core supporters to get to the polls and where so many races, both in the House and the Senate are so close. The real danger for Republicans is this scandal provides the margin the Democrats need to get over the top in the 3-4 brutally close Senate races (Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee and New Jersey) and another 15-20 House races (#'s 10 - 30 on RCP's list).

This is the Republicans fear - and it is a legitimate one.