I saw a lot of speculation on the Sunday shows as to whether the Foley scandal would damage GOP candidates this cycle. My sense is that it does not.

To hurt the GOP's electoral prospects, it has to hurt GOP candidates. So -- the big question: which candidates? For the issue to be effective, especially at this point, it would have to be linked to specific House incumbents. That seems to me to be a hard sell. A very hard sell indeed. We have gotten to that point in the campaign where the principal focus is, or at least it should be, the individual races. All of those multi-million dollar campaign warchests are now being emptied to focus the voter on the strengths/weaknesses of the candidates in each race. So -- for Foley to work outside FL 16, you'd have to tie somebody to him in a clear, convincing manner. Talking in the abstract about something harming a party's electoral prospects generally is really inappropriate come October. If you do not have specific candidates who will be harmed in specific ways, then you have little basis for your argument.

That is not to say that the psychological effect will not be strongly felt among GOP elites. I imagine they must be extremely frustrated right now. After that win in California's 50th district, the GOP has just had some bad luck. They were unable to field a replacement in TX 22 after DeLay resigned and withdrew. They failed to get the preferred candidate in AZ 08, and now seem to have little-to-no chance in retaining Jim Kolbe's seat. Meanwhile, they are looking quite weak in both IA 01 and CO 07. There is also a great deal of baggage for the GOP in both OH 18 and PA 10. Handing the Democrats FL 16 will probably serve as a major depressant, as it is now seems to be the 5th-to-7th seat where Democrats have a distinct advantage.