Here's a wrap up of the key Senate races in Missouri, Virginia, New Jersey and Tennessee from tonight's FOX Report with Shepard Smith.

Since then there is a new SurveyUSA poll in Missouri that has McCaskill up 3 points and has swung the RCP Average to McCaskill + 0.2. Right now, just strictly off the RCP Averages, the Dems would pick up 6 seats (PA, OH, RI, MT, VA & MO) and control of the Senate. Missouri and Virginia are still clear toss ups and Republicans do have pick up opportunities in New Jersey and the potential sleeper surprise of the night in Maryland. Michael Steele just picked up a critical endorsement yesterday that should help him build on his momentum coming out of his debates with Cardin. He trails by 5.3 in the latest RCP average.

Media Alert: I will be on the FOX Report With Shepard Smith tonight around 7:45 est to talk about the key races in the Battle for the Senate.

Robert Stacey, an associate professor in the Robertson School of Government at Regent University, writes in today's Philadelphia Inquirer:

But when serious threats to our sense of security or moral stability emerge, priorities shift. Woe to the candidate who trots out the latest figures from the Labor Department or the Congressional Budget Office at a time when Americans are feeling moral outrage.

The Foley scandal generated just such a sense of moral outrage. The political fallout from his misconduct will be clear soon enough, and like many other ethical scandals, it may take down or seriously injure more than just the guilty until the public outrage has run its course.

One thing is certain. In 2006, it's not the economy. It's morality, stupid.

Stacey could very well end up being right, but outside of the few Congressional districts where the Foley scandal had an obvious direct impact like FL-16 and NY-26 and the general public disgust registered in national surveys, I'd love to see him cite some specific evidence to support his hypothesis. I haven't seen it.

In fact, one number that caught my attention from the Daily Herald polls on IL6 and IL8 released yesterday was this:

In the 8th Congressional District race, only 2 percent of those surveyed in a Daily Herald/ ABC 7 Chicago poll listed it as the major reason they're picking Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean over Republican challenger David McSweeney.

To the south, just 1 percent in the 6th Congressional District listed the GOP page scandal as the primary reason they'll back Democratic Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth over Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam.

Those numbers seem to reject the argument that voters in districts around the country - especially Republican-leaning ones like IL6 and IL8 - are seething with moral outrage and will rise up and smite the GOP over the pervy Internet indiscretions of a gay Republican Congressman from Palm Beach, Florida.

Republican Pete Ricketts is thought by many to be a rising GOP star. But this year ain't his year, as he's running well behind in the only polls that have been taken in this race. Nevertheless, here is a recent commercial from Ricketts, working the only angle he has against Ben Nelson as best he can:

Two points on the John Kerry slam on our troops. When the Harry Reid land sale scandal broke, I wrote that the 527 Media would bury the story, and they did. This time, neither the NYT nor the networks will be able to contain the fire Kerry started and continues to stoke.

Kerry's remarks began as just icing atop the Democrats' contempt for the military. It's a subset of Jack Murtha's remarks about how the army is broken, how our troops are disgruntled and why we have to bring everybody out of Iraq to rebuild the force before it falls apart all together. Question for Messrs. Tester, Brown, Menendez, Webb, Ford and Ms. McCaskill: do you agree with John Kerry's remarks?

Sen. John McCain didn't agree and demanded - in pretty strong language -- that Kerry apologize. Which came out about the time Kerry was saying that only right wing nuts who've never worn the uniform or fought in a war were decrying what he said.

Kerry just made it much worse. He just held a news conference on it and insisted that his sneering remarks at Pasadena City College were aimed at the president, not at the troops. Look again at the film clip and judge for yourself. At the press conference, Kerry's words got more and more heated as he went on. He's still accusing Republicans of twisting his words, refusing to debate and failing in Iraq. His rather risible explanation for his remarks was that when he talked about those who didn't do well in school, he was talking about the Bush administration. At this rate, Republicans should hope Kerry keeps talking all throughout the week and until the polls close on Tuesday.

If Republicans really are depressed heading into this election, there's nothing quite like a public yelling match over John Kerry's willingness to insult U.S. troops to offer a little pick me up. After McCain called on Kerry to apologize, Tony Snow at the White House followed suit, adding that Kerry's remarks were "an absolute insult" to U.S. soldiers and their families.

Instead of taking his lumps and apologizing for his ridiculous comments, Kerry went off:

"If anyone thinks a veteran would criticize the more than 140,000 heroes serving in Iraq and not the president who got us stuck there, they're crazy. This is the classic G.O.P. playbook. I'm sick and tired of these despicable Republican attacks that always seem to come from those who never can be found to serve in war, but love to attack those who did.

I'm not going to be lectured by a stuffed suit White House mouthpiece standing behind a podium, or doughy Rush Limbaugh, who no doubt today will take a break from belittling Michael J. Fox's Parkinson's disease to start lying about me just as they have lied about Iraq. It disgusts me that these Republican hacks, who have never worn the uniform of our country lie and distort so blatantly and carelessly about those who have."

Nowhere in the statement does John Kerry address the substance of what he said. I understand that Kerry has been eager to show off his tough new, "I WONT BE SWIFT-BOATED AGAIN!!!" strategy that he thinks will help convince Democrats to give him another chance at the brass ring in 2008, but to trot out this tripe to defend an insult against U.S. troops is breathtakingly arrogant - and it's an absolute gift to the GOP seven days before an election.

Kerry's over the top response assures that he'll dominate the news chatter for the next 24 hours or more. And you can bet that Republicans in Congressional and Senate races around the country are prepping press releases as we speak (if they haven't already been sent out), calling on their Democratic opponents to disavow Kerry's remarks. It'll be interesting to see how that little drama plays out in the coming days.

Maryland tilts strongly Democratic, but what many people don't realize is a sizable number of Democratic votes in Maryland come from only 3 of the 24 counties in the state. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend got 48% of the vote against Gov. Bob Ehrlich, but only won Prince George's, Montgomery and Baltimore City. Prince George's county is the most affluent African-American county in the United States and is home to 320, 000 registered Democrats. Yesterday, Prince George's former county executive Wayne Curry and five fellow black Democrats from the County Council endorsed the Republican Michael Steele.

This endorsement carries an enormous amount of weight in Maryland's African-American community in the Washington suburbs. With Steele himself a Washington and PG County native, and his opponent a long-time Baltimore City congressman, Steele is well-positioned to eat into this traditional Democratic stronghold.

A quick look at the RCP Chart of this race shows Steele steadily climbing the last three weeks. He trails Cardin by 5.3% in the latest RCP Average. If he can pull to within 3 points the odds for scoring the big upset will increase dramatically.

Interesting that the two states that sandwich Washington DC may see the biggest upsets on election night.

McCain Calls on Kerry to apologize (via Drudge)

Senator Kerry owes an apology to the many thousands of Americans serving in Iraq, who answered their country's call because they are patriots and not because of any deficiencies in their education. Americans from all backgrounds, well off and less fortunate, with high school diplomas and graduate degrees, take seriously their duty to our country, and risk their lives today to defend the rest of us in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere.

They all deserve our respect and deepest gratitude for their service. The suggestion that only the least educated Americans would agree to serve in the military and fight in Iraq, is an insult to every soldier serving in combat, and should deeply offend any American with an ounce of appreciation for what they suffer and risk so that the rest of us can sleep more comfortably at night. Without them, we wouldn't live in a country where people securely possess all their God-given rights, including the right to express insensitive, ill-considered and uninformed remarks.

If you haven't seen the video clip it is 10 seconds long and right here. His words and tone say everything about John Kerry and it one of the core reasons he is not President.

Veteran Iowa political reporter/columnist David Yepsen writes today:

Democratic prospects are very good, but some Democrats seem overconfident. Polls aren't predictors, and they can close rapidly in the final days of a campaign.

In Iowa, the much ballyhooed Democratic absentee-ballot program isn't producing the results it produced in the last mid-term election. Democratic strategists still think they'll produce 10,000 to 15,000 more absentee votes than Republicans do, but that's not a comfortable margin heading into Election Day, when Republicans have the superior get-out-the-vote operation.

In his last column, however, Yepsen pointed to the new poll by Center For Rural Strategies showing significant deterioration of GOP standing among rural voters. The poll surveyed rural voters "41 contested U.S. House races"and found Democrats candidates preferred by a 52-39 margin over Republicans. That number was 45-45 last month, according to the survey.

Incidentally, this is the kind of survey that Jay Cost referred to this way:

As a method, I find this "polling of the X most vulnerable races" to be quite suspect. Not in and of itself, but rather because it inclines one to draw race-by-race inferences. But these sorts of inferences cannot be drawn. At all. I view polls like this as akin to entrapment - they are goading you into making an inferential error.

That isn't to say the thrust of the poll isn't accurate - it may indeed be that Republican support among rural voters is sinking this year - only that without looking at the data on individual races it's impossible to say how such a lack of support might manifest itself and what electoral impact it may or may not have seven days from now.

Veteran Iowa political reporter/columnist David Yepsen writes today:

Democratic prospects are very good, but some Democrats seem overconfident. Polls aren't predictors, and they can close rapidly in the final days of a campaign.

In Iowa, the much ballyhooed Democratic absentee-ballot program isn't producing the results it produced in the last mid-term election. Democratic strategists still think they'll produce 10,000 to 15,000 more absentee votes than Republicans do, but that's not a comfortable margin heading into Election Day, when Republicans have the superior get-out-the-vote operation.

In his last column, however, Yepsen pointed to the new poll by Center For Rural Strategies showing significant deterioration of GOP standing among rural voters. The poll surveyed rural voters "41 contested U.S. House races"and found Democrats candidates preferred by a 52-39 margin over Republicans. That number was 45-45 last month, according to the survey.

Incidentally, this is the kind of survey that Jay Cost referred to this way:

As a method, I find this "polling of the X most vulnerable races" to be quite suspect. Not in and of itself, but rather because it inclines one to draw race-by-race inferences. But these sorts of inferences cannot be drawn. At all. I view polls like this as akin to entrapment - they are goading you into making an inferential error.

That isn't to say the thrust of the poll isn't accurate - it may indeed be that Republican support among rural voters is sinking this year - only that without looking at the data on individual races it's impossible to say how such a lack of support might manifest itself and what electoral impact it may or may not have seven days from now.