The post-Labor Day polls seem to be bringing little good news for Senator Santorum. Like the Gallup poll giving Casey an 18-point lead in late August we don't put a lot of stock in the IssuesPA/Pew poll showing Casey ahead 23 points, but there is no question that after a tightening to the 5-8 point range in mid-August, the recent polls indicate Casey has restored his double-digit lead. Put simply, this is bad news for Republican chances to hold this seat.

Santorum at a minimum needed to keep this race in the 5-8 point range. A 9 - 12 point range (or higher) in the RCP Average in late September, is not good news for an incumbent Senator. The polls are likely to close again, but Casey at this stage holds the definite advantage.

(Late Update: Today a Pennsylvania judge has ordered the Green Party candidate off the ballot. If there is no appeal here this is obviously more bad news for Santorum as Romanelli was likely to draw a small percentage of votes, more than overwhelmingly likely to come from Casey.)

TOM ADDS: One thing all these polls have in common: Santorum is polling under 40%, which is almost exactly where his job approval rating sits. An incumbent running under 50% is usually considered a cause for concern. An incumbent consistently running under 40% six weeks before election day is a big, big problem.

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