The recent polling in New Jersey seems to confirm that Senator Menendez is indeed in trouble. The Democrat hasn't had the lead in a non-partisan, telephone poll since the beginning of August, and right now he trails Kean 44.3% - 41.0% in the RCP Average. Given the macro negative backdrop for Republicans and the Democratic tilt of New Jersey, Menendez's inability to get his numbers out of the low 40's we take as a real warning sign for his reelection. This race is not only clearly a toss up, but it is fast becoming one of the more likely seats to switch parties.

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