On the back of yesterday's release by Gallup showing the GOP pulling to even in the Generic Ballot, 48% - 48% among likely voters, today's Quinnipiac poll in Ohio showing Senator Mike DeWine essentially tied with Rep. Sherrod Brown (Brown 45%, DeWine 44%) could be another piece of data suggesting that we may have seen a shift in the landscape for this year's midterms over the past four weeks. The University of Cincinnati has also released a poll today with Brown ahead only four points, 51% - 47%. Falling gas prices, the DOW near all-time highs and a renewed focus on the war on terror is not the backdrop one would associate with a massive Democratic "wave" in November.

We'll see whether this tightening in Ohio is confirmed by other polling in key races. There is a lag effect with much of the state polling, and to date most of the state polling has not been confirming a significant tightening toward Republicans. It will be important to watch whether today's Ohio Senate polls are a harbinger of better polls on the state level for the GOP.

The two races in particular I am keeping my eyes on for new polling are Pennsylvania and Missouri. If Rick Santorum can pull to within 3-7 points in the RCP Average (currently at Casey +8.6%) and Jim Talent can bump his lead up to 2-4 points (currently he has a scant 0.3% edge in the RCP Average) that would be a further indication that a real tightening is taking place across the board. On the other hand, if Bob Casey holds on to closer to a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania and Claire McCaskill stays tied or pulls ahead in Missouri, that would not be consistent with a GOP tightening.

President Bush's job approval is another number to watch. The RCP Average has been hovering around 40% for about a month and currently resides at 40.8%; the direction Bush's job approval average moves away from 40% will be another good tell as to which way this election will break.