David Yepsen reports on an interesting development in Iowa:

Democrats have pulled ahead of Republicans in voter registrations in Iowa -- the first time that's happened since 1994, according to state registration records.

A year ago, the GOP still led the Democrats. This change is another signal that 2006 could be a bad year for the Republicans.

Yepsen goes on to speculate about reasons for the shift before concluding:

Yes, it's early. Yes, registration numbers are not predictors of election returns. Yes, candidates can stumble. So Democrats shouldn't start singing "Happy Days Are Here Again."

A quiet humming will do.

Incidentally, this reminds me of the plethora of stories we saw in 2004 on the surging number of Democratic registrations in swing states around the country. This September 26, 2004 article by Ford Fessenden of the New York Times is a perfect example of what I'm referring to:

A sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states, a review of registration data shows.

The analysis by The New York Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: in the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas.

We all know how that turned out. It should be noted, however, that Yepsen is working with real numbers in Iowa and not guestimates, so he may indeed have identified a trouble spot for GOP candidates in the Hawkeye state.

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