A second poll in the last 10 days now shows Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter (D) leading former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in his bid for re-election. The DailyKos/Research 2000 survey also finds Rep. Joe Sestak (D) trailing Toomey by just 3 points, though he trails Specter in the Democratic primary by 19 points.

SENATE
Dem Primary
Specter 52
Sestak 31

Specter leads by 18.7 points in the RCP Average.

General Election
Specter 47 - Toomey 41

Toomey 42 - Sestak 39

Toomey now leads Specter by just 1.5 points in the RCP Average and Sestak by 8.0 points.

GOVERNOR
Meanwhile, in the open governor's race, the survey finds Republican Tom Corbett leading Democrat Dan Onorato by 6 points, as well as three other potential Democratic opponents.

Corbett 40 - Onorato 34
Corbett 41 - Hoeffel 31
Corbett 41 - Wagner 32
Corbett 47 - Williams 19

The survey was conducted March 8-10 of 600 LV with a MoE of +/- 4%.

President Obama's decision to delay the departure of his overseas trip is a tacit - and utterly unsurprising - admission that the Democrats do not have the necessary votes in the House to pass the Senate bill.

The obvious question is whether a 72-hour charm offensive by the President will be enough to save the day. It's hard to say, and we won't know anything for sure until members of the House do what they get paid to do.  However, the President has been putting on the full court press for three weeks now, and the results do not appear to be terribly impressive. So the President's decision has a Copenhagen-esque feel to it, though as a political matter he may not have had much of a choice.

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet ties leading Republican challenger Jane Norton in a new Public Policy Polling survey, while former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) leads Norton by 5 points. Norton had led Bennet in most polling over the last several months.

Both Democrats lead Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck and state Sen. Tom Wiens.

Bennet 43 - Norton 43 - Und 14
Bennet 46 - Buck 40 - Und 14
Bennet 45 - Wiens 37 - Und 18

Romanoff 44 - Norton 39 - Und 17
Romanoff 44 - Buck 36 - Und 20
Romanoff 45 - Wiens 34 - Und 21

The survey of 580 RV was conducted March 5-8 with a MoE of +/- 4.1%.

California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman (R) is planning to air a 30-minute infomercial that is currently in production. How do we know? An oppo-researcher for Whitman's primary opponent, Steve Poizner, got in to the mock town-hall that will be featured in the program and taped parts of it, the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

Whitman can be seen asking the crowd to cheer, and later an unknown voice asks two crowd members to re-ask their questions to give Whitman a second shot at answering them.

You'll remember Barack Obama released an infomerical late in the 2008 presidential race.

The move also comes after Whitman was railed for inviting press to an event earlier this week and then refusing to take any questions. Democratic Governors Association spokeswoman Emily DeRose had this to say after the latest Whitman news: "There is still no word on when she'll be taking unplanned questions from the public or press."

Louisiana Sen. David Vitter (R) continues to lead Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) in his bid for re-election, despite being one of two Republican Senate incumbents Democrats hope to defeat in November. A new Rasmussen survey (March 10, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds Vitter leading by 23 points -- little change from last month.

Vitter 57 (nc vs. last poll, Feb. 10)
Melancon 34 (+1)
Und 6

National Democrats were excited to land Melancon, who was so established in his district that he ran unopposed in 2008. Melancoln announced his candidacy in late August and by October trailed Vitter by just 10 points. However, Vitter has since gained support beyond the 50% mark while Melancon has seen little movement.

We asked earlier this week whether Republicans would be better off in the midterm elections if health care reform passes or fails. As bad as the GOP says it would be for Dems if they pass it, both the NRCC and NRSC are publicly making efforts to stop the bill.

In its weekly poll, National Journal asked members of Congress from both parties a similar question, and not a single Republican said their party would be hurt at all if Democrats passed a reform bill similar to the one President Obama proposed a few weeks ago. In fact, 76 percent of Republicans said it would help their party a lot in the midterms and 24 percent said it would help a little.

"It would be an act of political suicide," one Republican was quoted saying.

As for the Democrats, 87 percent said passing a reform bill would help their party either a little or a lot in the midterm elections; 14 percent said it would hurt a little or a lot.

Republicans in Pennsylvania's 12th District chose businessman Tim Burns as their nominee in the special election race to complete the term of the late Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.). Burns will face Murtha's former district director Mark Critz in the May 18 contest.

Burns was chosen by 85 of 131 voters at the district's GOP convention last night, the Tribune-Democrat reports.

"We have an opportunity to put a common-sense conservative in a seat that has long been held by a political insider," Burns told the crowd, referring to Murtha's powerful position as head of the Appropriations Defense subcommittee and close ties to Speaker Pelosi.

Critz was chosen earlier this week by Democratic leaders in the district ahead of former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer.

Interesting news from the Columbus Dispatch:

ACORN, the liberal group notorious for allegedly trying to inflate voter rolls through fraudulent practices, has seen its last election in Ohio.

The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now will permanently surrender its Ohio business license by June1 as part of a legal settlement with the conservative Buckeye Institute for Public Policy Solutions, both sides said yesterday. [snip]

Yesterday's settlement is mostly confidential, said Maurice A. Thompson, the conservative group's attorney.

"They will surrender their business license by June 1 and cease to operate in Ohio and cease to support or enable other groups to do what they do," Thompson said.

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 survey finds California Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) holding leads within 10 points of each of her three potential general election opponents, and Attorney General Jerry Brown leading likely opponent Meg Whitman by just 4 points.

In the Senate race, the Republican primary all of a sudden looks more like a two-person race between former Rep. Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina, with Chuck DeVore getting just 7%.

Senate
GOP Primary
Campbell 33 - Fiorina 24 - DeVore 7

General Election
Boxer 47 - Campbell 43
Boxer 49 - Fiorina 40
Boxer 49 - DeVore 39

Boxer leads Campbell by 5.5 points, Fiorina by 9.0 points and DeVore by 10.0 points in the RCP Average.

Governor
GOP Primary
Whitman 52 - Poizner 19

General Election
Brown 45 - Whitman 41

Brown leads Whitman by 4.8 points in the RCP Average.

The survey was conducted March 8-10 of 600 LV with a MoE of +/- 4%.

In a letter today, Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid informed his colleague Republican Senator Mitch McConnell of his intention to move forward with the budget reconciliation process to pass "fixes" to the health care legislation that passed the Senate on Christmas Eve Day last year. Here's the full text of Reid's letter:

March 11, 2009

The Honorable Mitch McConnell
Republican Leader
United States Senate
Washington, DC 20510

Dear Leader McConnell:

Eleven months ago, I wrote you to share my expectations for the coming health reform debate.  At the time, I expressed Democrats' intention to work in good faith with Republicans, and my desire that – while we would disagree at times – we could engage in an honest discussion grounded in facts rather than fear, and focused on producing results, not playing partisan politics.

Obviously, the opposite has happened, as many Republicans have spent the past year mischaracterizing the health reform bill and misleading the public.  Though we have tried to engage in a serious discussion, our efforts have been met by repeatedly debunked myths and outright lies.  At the same time, Republicans have resorted to extraordinary legislative maneuvers in an effort not to improve the bill, but to delay and kill it.  After watching these tactics for nearly a year, there is only one conclusion an objective observer could make:  these Republican maneuvers are rooted less in substantive policy concerns and more in a partisan desire to discredit Democrats, bolster Republicans, and protect the status quo on behalf of the insurance industry.

In fact, the attacks on the health care bill are part of a broader pattern.  As has been well documented, your caucus conspicuously shattered the record for obstruction last Congress by demanding gratuitous procedural votes on even the most non-controversial matters, and by stalling the work of the Senate despite the urgency of the serious problems facing our country.  Senate Republicans are on pace to again break their own record this Congress, illustrated by Sen. Bunning's effort to prevent the Senate from acting to extend families' unemployment and health benefits even after those benefits had expired.

While Republicans were distorting the facts in the health care debate and inflicting delay after needless delay, millions of Americans have continued to suffer as they struggle to afford to stay healthy, stay out of bankruptcy and stay in their homes.  Thousands of Americans lose their health care every day, and tens of thousands of the uninsured have lost their lives since this debate began.   Meanwhile, rising health costs have contributed to a rising federal budget deficit.

To address these problems, 60 Senators voted to pass historic reform that will make health insurance more affordable, make health insurance companies more accountable and reduce our deficit by roughly a trillion dollars.  The House passed a similar bill.  However, many Republicans now are demanding that we simply ignore the progress we've made, the extensive debate and negotiations we've held, the amendments we've added (including more than 100 from Republicans) and the votes of a supermajority in favor of a bill whose contents the American people unambiguously support.  We will not.  We will finish the job.  We will do so by revising individual elements of the bills both Houses of Congress passed last year, and we plan to use the regular budget reconciliation process that the Republican caucus has used many times.

I know that many Republicans have expressed concerns with our use of the existing Senate rules, but their argument is unjustified.  There is nothing unusual or extraordinary about the use of reconciliation.  As one of the most senior Senators in your caucus, Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, said in explaining the use of this very same option, “Is there something wrong with majority rules?  I don't think so.”  Similarly, as non-partisan congressional scholars Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein said in this Sunday's New York Times, our proposal is “compatible with the law, Senate rules and the framers' intent.”

Reconciliation is designed to deal with budget-related matters, and some have expressed doubt that it could be used for comprehensive health care reform that includes many policies with no budget implications.  But the reconciliation bill now under consideration would not be the vehicle for comprehensive reform – that bill already passed outside of reconciliation with 60 votes.  Instead, reconciliation would be used to make a modest number of changes to the original legislation, all of which would be budget-related.  There is nothing inappropriate about this.  Reconciliation has been used many times for a variety of health-related matters, including the establishment of the Children's Health Insurance Program and COBRA benefits, and many changes to Medicare and Medicaid.

As you know, the vast majority of bills developed through reconciliation were passed by Republican Congresses and signed into law by Republican Presidents – including President Bush's massive, budget-busting tax breaks for multi-millionaires.  Given this history, one might conclude that Republicans believe a majority vote is sufficient to increase the deficit and benefit the super-rich, but not to reduce the deficit and benefit the middle class.  Alternatively, perhaps Republicans believe a majority vote is appropriate only when Republicans are in the majority.  Either way, we disagree.

Keep in mind that reconciliation will not exclude Republicans from the legislative process.  You will continue to have an opportunity to offer amendments and change the shape of the legislation.  In addition, at the end of the process, the bill can pass only if it wins a democratic, up-or-down majority vote.  If Republicans want to vote against a bill that reduces health care costs, fills the prescription drug “donut hole” for seniors and reduces the deficit, you will have every right to do so.

Sincerely,

HARRY REID
United States Senator
Nevada