TX Gov Poll: Perry +11
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by 11 points for the Republican nomination as he seeks re-election, according to a new PPP poll. And Debra Medina is surging in third place, trailing Hutchison by only 4 points.
In the Democratic primary, former Houston Mayor Bill White garners 49% and holds a large lead over his opponents.
Perry 39
Hutchison 28
Medina 24
Und 10
The survey was conducted Feb. 4-7 of 400 likely Democratic voters and 423 likely Republican voters. The margin of error for the Democrats was 4.9% and Republicans 4.8%.
Perry has led every poll since November by double digits.
Those Were The Days
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Legislative leaders from both parties are meeting with President Obama now to discuss the economy, the first of the monthly bicameral, bipartisan meetings promised in the State of the Union address. Meanwhile, the back and forth between Congressional Republicans and the White House over the proposed health care summit continues.
Yesterday, Minority Leaders John Boehner and Mitch McConnell said they would attend the summit, but only if the White House agreed to certain ground rules, making it clear they think the entire legislative effort should start over. Robert Gibbs responded that the president would not "walk away from reform and the millions of American families and small business counting on it." He also reminded the leaders of a meeting the president held with GOP leadership last March seeking their input.
Now, a GOP leadership aide e-mails a copy of a letter Republicans sent the administration as the process moved forward last spring, asking for another White House meeting. The aide also provided the president's reply, which, in the words of the aide, amounted to saying: "thanks, but no thanks." Included in that letter was this statement from the president: "I believe legislation that addresses issues of cost, coverage, and quality of care will pass the House of Representatives by August 1."
In fact, that bill only passed the House on November 7. The Senate passed its own version just before Christmas. And then, of course, Scott Brown was elected to the Senate, effectively shelving the bill for the foreseeable future.
For more, read Kyle's take on the health care summit here.
NH Poll: Dems Face A Thumpin'
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
New Hampshire Democrats have been on a roll for years, particularly at the federal level in winning both House seats in 2006, a Senate race in 2008, and going blue for Democrats in the presidential elections of 2004 and 2008. But a new University of New Hampshire Granite State poll shows that the party is in danger of a clean sweep in 2010.
First, the Senate race to replace Judd Gregg (R). Rep. Paul Hodes (D) trails former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R), and he doesn't poll above 40 in any matchup, even with the lesser-known potential opponents he leads.
Ayotte (R) 41 -- Hodes (D) 33 -- Und 25
Hodes (D) 38 -- Lamontagne (R) 29 -- Und 30
Hodes (D) 34 -- Binnnie (R) 30 -- Und 33
Hodes (D) 36 -- Bender (R) 27 -- Und 35
In the first Congressional District, Rep. Carol Shea Porter sees her favorable rating dip to 35 percent while 40 percent now view her unfavorably, a net drop of 11 points from October. Right now four Republicans are likely running to challenge her, and she trails each one.
Guinta (R) 43 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 22
Ashooh (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 28
Bestani (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 30
Mahoney (R) 39 -- Shea Porter (D) 32 -- Und 28
The second Congressional District sees an open seat race. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) is running to reclaim the seat he lost to Hodes in 2006; 2008 nominee Jennifer Horn (R) is also running again. On the Democratic side, attorney Ann McLane Kuster (D) will likely face 2002 nominee Katrine Swett (D). Only Swett holds a lead in potential matchups with both Republicans.
Bass (R) 37 -- Swett (D) 30 -- Und 33
Bass (R) 39 -- Kuster (D) 28 -- Und 33
Swett (D) 30 -- Horn (R) 26 -- Und 43
Horn (R) 28 -- Kuster (D) 25 -- Und 44
These outcomes come in the same survey that showed President Obama's support in the Granite State slipping, particularly among independents. The statewide matchups are based on a sample of 444 likely voters interviewed from January 27 to February 3, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. The CD-1 sample was 251 adults (MoE +/- 6.2%) and the CD-2 sample was 249 adults (MoE +/- 6.2%).
Paul Ryan Won't Run For Prez In 2012
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan (R) said over the weekend that he will not run for president in 2012.
However, while Ryan has ruled out a national bid, he is still considering running for statewide office in two years. In an interview with RealClearPolitics last week, Ryan said he may run for Senate in 2012, when Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wisc.) -- who just turned 75 -- will be up for re-election.
The budget expert's profile, already on the rise, has catapulted since President Obama engaged him two weeks ago during the president's televised appearance before the House Republican Conference.
OH Gov Poll: Kasich Maintains Lead
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
The Ohio governor race really kicked off in the past month, as both John Kasich (R) and incumbent Ted Strickland (D) announced their running mates. Strickland also delivered his state-of-the-state address in recent weeks. And yet, Rasmussen's latest poll in the Buckeye State (500 LVs, 2/5-6, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds little movement for either candidate, with the former Republican Congressman still ahead.
General Election Matchup
Kasich 47 (unch vs. last poll, 1/12)
Strickland 41 (+1)
Und 8 (unch)
As noted yesterday, Strickland's job approval rating has ticked up three points since January, and now stands at 46 percent. Kasich's favorable rating is 47 percent, with 30 percent viewing him unfavorably.
CO Gov Poll: Hickenlooper +4
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) leads former congressman Scott McInnis (R) in a matchup between the two parties' likely gubernatorial nominees, according to a new Rasmussen survey (Feb. 4, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5). Hickenlooper jumped in the race last month, shortly after a poll found him down 3 points.
Hickenlooper 49 (+7 vs. last poll, Jan. 7)
McInnis 45 (nc)
Und 6
Hickenlooper is more well known statewide than McInnis, whom a fifth of voters have no opinion about. Both candidates have favorable ratings higher than 50%.
White House Health Care Meeting Met With Skepticism On The Hill
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
President Obama's recently proposed White House health care meeting was immediately met with skepticism on Capitol Hill -- Republicans are wary of the motives behind the move, while Democrats doubt the result will be any different than negotiations with the GOP over the past year.
Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, called it “a hollow PR blitz,” adding, “Republicans welcome honest discussion, but this event reeks of political gamesmanship.” GOP House leaders John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Eric Cantor (R-Va.) sent a lengthy letter to White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel outlining their many concerns with the meeting.
On the Senate side, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) indicated a willingness to talk as long as the plans that passed the two chambers are scrapped and the two sides start from scratch, which Boehner and Cantor called for as well.
“If we are to reach a bipartisan consensus, the White House can start by shelving the current health spending bill,” said McConnell.
Meanwhile, some liberal members aren't convinced Republicans are willing to negotiate and believe the opposing party has simply adopted an obstructionist political strategy -- and the event could provide a televised forum for political posturing.
“If there is an earnest effort to come to some kind of understanding, then it's worth the effort,” Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said Monday in an interview with RealClearPolitics. “Personally, I'm not optimistic.”
President Obama announced the Feb. 25 meeting during an interview with CBS
News just before the Super Bowl, hoping the televised effort will help bring transparency and solutions to the Democrats' stalled effort of reforming the health care system. Democrats and Republicans from the House and Senate will be invited, though it's unclear which of the many factions in the debate are willing to compromise their priorities to solve the impasse.
For instance, liberals are still pushing the public option, which was left out of the Senate bill after failing to receive enough support and assumed to be a nonstarter in bicameral negotiations.
With weather permitting, Grijalva and other Progressive Caucus leaders will meet late this afternoon with several senators, including Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), to discuss the government-run insurance option, an insurance exchange and other reform measures.
“We don't think they're dead,” Grijalva said of the progressives' priorities. “I hate to be pessimistic about the White House meeting, but regardless of what happens with that we're still working to get something done.”
"And as for Liz Cheney, well, how rich to be called a racist by someone whose ideological forebears opposed the entire progressive 20th century, and I mean all of it. Not just federal civil rights legislation but, you know, women's suffrage and the end of child labor, too. Not to mention the New Deal, the Fair Deal, the Great Society, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, worker safety, fair housing, federal aid to education, public education generally, health insurance for indigent children, the Voting Rights Act, and the minimum wage. For the past century they have fought tooth and nail these things that have helped make America great." - Mark Warren, co-author of Harry Reid's book "The Good Fight," on Cheney calling Reid's "negro dialect" remarks racist.
FL Sen: Rep. Pence Endorses Rubio
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) endorsed Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio today, according to the Rubio campaign. Pence serves as the Republican Conference Chairman -- the third-ranking Republican in the House -- and briefly considered a Senate candidacy of his own this year.
Here is Pence's statement in full:
"I am proud to endorse Marco Rubio for the United States Senate. Marco Rubio's faith in free markets, limited government and traditional moral values make him the right choice for Republicans in this race. At a time when the American people long for leaders of principle, Marco Rubio will be a courageous check and balance on the current Washington establishment.
“With Washington spending money we don't have and empowering the government at the expense of individual freedom, we need more leaders like Marco Rubio who are willing to take a stand for the common sense and common values of the American people."
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) was the first member of Congress to endorse Rubio over Gov. Charlie Crist, who was endorsed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee within minutes of formally entering the race.
Not a Man of the People
Posted by Tom Bevan | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Garrison Keillor gets taken to the Wobegon woodshed by Chuck Chalberg:
But a reader needn't be much of a sleuth to detect another source of anger -- Mr. Keillor himself. Oh, he does his best to hide behind well-cultivated folksiness and well-advertised geniality. But behind it all is anger -- as in how could all those good citizens of liberal Massachusetts reject his party, his president and all those 50 million Americans without health insurance?
It has to be sputtering anger that leads him to dredge up all the anti-Obama fringe charges (birthers and the like) and suggest that they represent the majority of Massachusetts voters who just dispatched a used truck to Washington.
Has Garrison Keillor forgotten about Paul Wellstone's rusty bus? Was candidate Wellstone angry? Not really. If anything, the professor was a wild-eyed optimist.[snip]
Maybe, just maybe, voters in Massachusetts were more worried than angry. And maybe, just maybe, they were hopeful as well, hopeful that if we do what Scott Brown suggests and start over we can figure out a way to adopt needed reform without creating a bureaucratic nightmare.
Keillor is too angry to be very hopeful. What's worse, he's angry at the sort of folks who can be found in Lake Wobegons everywhere, including Massachusetts.
If only he'd take the time to go home again, he might meet a few.

