Quote of the Day

"You know, if I'd wanted Dick Cheney as president I would have just voted for him" -Mother Jones blogger Kevin Drum on the Obama administration's attempt to expand the FBI's authority to demand Internet records without a warrant.


Sherrod to Sue Brietbart

Apparently that's what she just told the National Association of Black Journalists at their convention in San Diego. I'll have to consult my lawyer friends to see what kind of case she may have. My guess is that she'd have a stronger case against the government for wrongful termination - though Vilsack has already apologized and offered her a new job - than she would against someone posting a video on the internet of her own words, even if the editing stripped it of the larger context of her speech.


Real Clear Thursday

On RCP's Election 2010 page, Kyle Trygstad writes about a new poll out of Florida that shows "outsider" candidates Rick Scott and Jeff Greene leading their respective primary races.

RCW and Gallup rank the "Top 5 Most Wired Countries."

On RCM, Diana Furchtgott-Roth writes about President Obama's Mid-Session Review, which shows that the deficit is on the rise and unemployment will remain high for years to come.

And on RCS, Jeff Neuman writes about the history of the 600 home run club.


MO: Another Poll Finds Blunt Up 6%

Two polls in the last two weeks have shown Rep. Roy Blunt (R) holding a 6-point lead over his Missouri Senate opponent, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D). Rasmussen's poll today finds Blunt with 49%, Carnahan 43% and just 4% undecided.

Blunt's support has increased 2 points from Rasmussen's poll two weeks ago, while Carnahan dropped 2 points. That survey, showing a statistical tie, was conducted just after President Obama campaigned in Kansas City for Carnahan.

Missouri is one of several open seats Republicans are hoping to hold in what's expected to be a strong year for the party. Others include Ohio, Florida, Kentucky and New Hampshire. While the GOP is expected to pick up several Democratic seats, keeping these are a high priority as well.

The survey of 750 likely voters was conducted July 27 with a 4% margin of error.


MI Gov: Bernero Takes Dem Primary Lead

Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero has jumped out to an 8-point lead in Tuesday's Democratic gubernatorial primary in Michigan. Bernero leads with 40% of the vote to state House Speaker Andy Dillon's 32%, with 28% remaining undecided. The result comes from a new EPIC/MRA survey conducted for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV.

Bernero had trailed Dillon by 10 points in the pollster's last survey in June and by 9 points in a Detroit News poll earlier this month. Helping his cause in this survey, Bernero now leads 51%-26% among union voters.

The Free Press reports that the poll "suggests that an aggressive, pro-Bernero, anti-Dillon TV ad campaign -- underwritten by large labor unions and run through the Genesee County Democratic Committee -- has moved many undecided voters into Bernero's camp."

The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted July 24-26 with a 4.9% margin of error.

Bernero or Dillon will face the winner of the competitive Republican primary, where three candidates -- Pete Hoekstra, Mike Cox and Rick Snyder -- were running within 6 points of each other in the latest poll.


FL: Outsiders Hold Edge In Primaries

A new Quinnipiac survey in Florida shows primary trouble for a couple formerly presumed nominees. In the Republican primary for governor, wealthy hospital entrepreneur Rick Scott leads Attorney General Bill McCollum by a 43%-32% margin, with 23% undecided. In the Democratic Senate primary, billionaire Jeff Greene has pulled out to a 33%-23% lead over Miami-area Rep. Kendrick Meek, with 35% undecided.

The Aug. 24 primary is now just more than three weeks away.

"If there was any doubt that enough money can make a political unknown into a front-runner, the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for governor should lay them to rest," said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter A. Brown. "Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

Unlike Greene, who's been on TV for weeks, Meek just released his first TV ad. But both candidates remain mostly unknown to voters -- 55% said they don't know enough about Meek to form an opinion of him and 47% said the same about Greene. Just more than half of Democratic primary voters said they could still change their mind on who to vote for.

In the governor's race, Scott's lack of political experience is giving him an edge over McCollum, as 54% said they'd prefer an outsider and just 28% want someone with years of government experience. In the Senate race, more people say they'd prefer someone with government experience (44%) than an outsider (35%).

"In most election years, McCollum's almost two decades of experience in government would be a major asset, but this year it appears to be a liability, since Scott has scored points labeling his opponent a 'career politician,'" said Brown.

The Quinnipiac survey was conducted July 22-27 of 760 likely Republican primary voters with a 3.6% margin of error. The survey of 782 likely Democratic primary voters held a 3.5% margin of error.


Nothing Business, Just Personal

Andrew and Jan Schill, the concerned citizens behind Donotvoteformydad.com, can claim partial victory in a certain Oklahoma judicial election. According to the Norman Transcript:

In November, Purcell attorneys Greg Dixon, 43, and John Mantooth, 62, will face each other for the Office No. 2 District Judge seat... Dixon received the most votes with 16,364 or 42.33 percent. Mantooth followed with 11,916 votes or 30.82 percent. Pauls Valley attorney Edward Tillery, 60, came in third with 10,378 votes or 26.85 percent.

Recall from yesterday that Jan Schill is the estranged daughter of Mantooth from his first marriage. She and husband Andrew took out a newspaper ad and launched a website to warn voters against voting for Mantooth.

Since none of the candidates for judge got over 50 percent of the primary vote, there will be a runoff election in November. Mantooth could still win but he is now at a severe disadvantage, having placed a distant second in the primary.

The added, fun wrinkle is that Mantooth opponent Dixon is Andrew Schill's former law partner. Good thing for him they're still on good terms.


Gorman Goes Quayle Hunting

I was going to make a small joke about how state senator Pamela Gorman had won the coveted Alan Keyes endorsement in her primary fight to replace John Shadegg in Arizona's 3rd, but now she's got a  backer with some real stopping power. Fellow state senator Russell Pearce, author of Arizona's popular immigration enforcement law, has endorsed her.

The person for Gorman to beat in the crowded primary is probably Ben Quayle, son of former VP Dan Quayle. Quayle has a huge cash advantage and he's been working hard to win over the conservative base, but, well, watch this Gorman campaign video (NSFW if you work at the Brady Campaign). From a policy perspective, it's surely relevant that the Arizona Sportsmen for Wildlife has endorsed Quayle, yet it's hard to beat a Tommy Gun for emotional wallop.


Poll: Illinois Senate Race Remains Close

Illinois Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R) remain locked in a close battle for the open seat, according to a new Rasmussen survey. The race, so far most notable for questions about the candidates' resumes, is now a 2-point match -- Giannoulias 43%, Kirk 41%, with 10% undecided.

If Republicans are to win control of the Senate this year, the party will likely need to win Illinois, which has the added symbolic value of being President Obama's former seat. Obama is scheduled to be in Chicago next week and will headline a fundraiser for Giannoulias, who has also received visits from Vice President Biden, White House senior adviser David Axelrod and Education Secretary Arne Duncan.

Giannoulias needs the help. Kirk raised more than twice as much money as the Democrat in the second fundraising quarter and ended June with just less than $3 million more on hand. Still, Kirk's lead in the polls has disappeared over the last two months.

The Rasmussen survey of 750 likely voters was conducted July 26 with a margin of error of +/- 4%.


Real Clear Wednesday

On RCP, John Stossel argues that "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" should go. Also, visit the Election 2010 page for a recap of last night's primary election in Oklahoma and a new poll out of New York that shows Andrew Cuomo and Kirsten Gillibrand cruising in their respective races.

On RCM, Steven Malanga writes about the Obama administration's plans for subsidized rental housing.

And on RCS, Carson Cunningham argues that Jason Whitlock is wrong to compare the NCAA to slavery.



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