What a difference two years makes.

2008:

2010:

A pair of polls today suggest that incumbent Ohio Democratic Governor Ted Strickland finds himself in deep trouble.

This morning, Rasmussen Reports released a survey finding former Republican Congressman John Kasich leading Strickland 52 percent to 40 percent. A 53 percent majority disapprove of the way Strickland is handling his job as governor, and an even more stark 59 percent of Ohioans disapprove of the job President Obama is doing while only 39 percent approve.

Also today, the Democratic polling firm PPP released a survey of Ohio voters showing nearly identical numbers. Kasich leads Strickland by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent, representing a noticeable shift in Kasich's favor from PPP's last survey in late June which had him leading Strickland by just three points, 45 to 42. PPP shows 52 percent of Ohioans disapprove of the job Strickland is doing as governor.

While PPP didn't ask what President Obama's job approval was, it asked a variant that produced a particularly jarring result. When asked whether they would rather have George W. Bush or Barack Obama as president, Ohio voters preferred President Bush over Obama by an eight point margin, 50 percent to 42 percent.

Needless to say, this finding undercuts what was going to be a major line of attack for Democrats in Ohio and around the country: tying Republican candidate to President Bush.

Overall, Kasich now leads Strickland by 10.3 percent in the RCP Average.

According to the latest Public Policy Polling (D) poll (8/27-8/29, 724 LV, MOE +/- 3.6%), Richard Burr leads Elaine Marshall by a narrow 43 percent to 38 percent margin. This is especially troubling news for Burr, because incumbents below 50 percent in August rarely win, to say nothing of those below 45 percent.

The whole trajectory of this race has been bizarre. North Carolina leans Republican by a few points at the presidential level and is a fairly conservative state at the local level. Burr hasn't committed any unpardonable sin that would normally sink an incumbent below 45 percent. One would expect him to be well above 50 percent in this environment, even given the slow movement of the state back toward the Democrats over the past decade.

But North Carolina voters are notoriously hard on their incumbents. No Senate candidate has won more than 55 percent of the vote in the last 35 years, and no senator has been re-elected since Jesse Helms in 1996.

Ideologically, the state's voters aren't that different from Louisiana's: the liberal/moderate/conservative breakdown for North Carolina was 18/43/39 compared with 16/42/42 in the Pelican state. But North Carolina Democrats have done an unusually good job holding onto the state's moderate voters. In 2008, President Obama won 63 percent of moderate North Carolina voters, while he won only 45 percent of all North Carolina voters. These moderate voters are presently breaking 52 percent to 26 percent for Marshall, keeping her very much in the game.

The good news for Burr is that he's leading in every area code in the state, save for the Raleigh/Durham 919 area code. There are half as many undecideds there (8 percent) as in other regions of the state. This suggests some room for growth for the senator. But make no mistake about it: Burr seems to be having difficulty swimming with the Republican tide and looks like he is vulnerable this cycle.

In one of the most watched Senate races this year, Republican Rob Portman continues to lead Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the race for retiring Republican Sen. George Voinovich's seat, according to a new poll from Rasmussen Reports.

Democrats across the country hope to tie this year's Republican candidates to George W. Bush, and Ohio Democrats see Portman, who served as budget director and trade representative in the Bush administration, as a ripe target. Fisher has been relentless in his attacks on Portman's Bush administration history, but nevertheless trails Portman by six points in the latest Rasmussen survey, 47 to 41.

On the other side, Republicans hope to bludgeon Democrats with the current weak economy. Portman has criticized Fisher -- who was the state's director of development for the first two years of his term as lieutenant governor -- for Ohio's loss of more than 300,000 jobs during the past four years.

Fisher's campaign has also been hampered by weak fundraising and poor organization. He's on his third campaign manager, and Portman held a 7-1 cash-on-hand advantage as of June 30.

Despite these challenges, however, he remains very much within striking distance of Portman. Portman has held a consistent, albeit slim, lead in polls released over the past month. Portman leads by 3.7 percentage points in the RCP Average.

Rasmussen Reports surveyed 750 likely Ohio voters on Monday for this poll, which has a margin of error of 4 percent.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll (8/29/10, 500 LVs, MOE +/- 4.5%) shows Governor Joe Manchin's lead over businessman and two-time Senate candidate John Raese down to single digits. The Governor, who is vying with Raese to replace the late nine-term Senator Robert Byrd, leads Raese by a slim 48 percent to 42 percent margin. This is down from a 51 percent to 35 percent margin earlier in the year. It should be noted that the poll was taken immediately after the primary contests, and that such polls frequently show bounces for the primary winner, especially if that winner is less well-known than the other candidate.

This race looks like it will come down to two competing trends. Seventy percent of West Virginia voters approve of the job that Governor Manchin is doing, with 36 percent strongly approving. At the same time, 70 percent of West Virginia voters disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing. If Raese can convince voters that Manchin's Democratic ties will force him to cast votes in support of the President's agenda, he may well win. On the other hand, if Manchin's likely message that he will be an independent vote in Washington wins out, then expect him to come out ahead.

Florida

The first polls to close were in Florida and Vermont. In Florida, first time GOP candidate Rick Scott defeated Attorney General Bill McCollum 46 percent to 43 percent in the party's gubernatorial primary. Scott has baggage relating to his ouster as CEO of a large health care company in the midst of allegations of Medicare and Medicaid fraud. But Scott also has deep reservoirs of cash to draw upon, and state CFO Alex Sink, who easily won the Democratic nomination, will have to scramble to keep up.

While Scott is the candidate Sink was probably hoping to face, it should be remembered that McCollum is a milquetoast politician with who has been a fixture in Florida politics since winning an Orlando-based House seat in 1980; his career took a turn for the worse when he lost a Senate election in 2000 and then a Senate primary election in 2004. Like the Nevada Senate primary, the Florida GOP was choosing between damaged candidates.

In the Senate race, the action was on the Democratic side. Four-term Congressman Kendrick Meek won his first competitive election ever, defeating billionaire Jeff Greene 57 percent to 31 percent. This is the result Republicans were hoping for. Independent candidate and current Governor Charlie Crist will have to rely upon Democratic votes in order to win the Senate seat against Republican nominee Marco Rubio, who easily won his primary. Meek is more likely than Greene to hold Democratic base voters, especially in the heavily African American constituency he represented in Congress. In essence, Crist's pool of potential voters is a lot narrower than it would have been against Greene.

Downticket, Democratic Congressman Allen Boyd narrowly (51 percent to 49 percent) survived his primary challenge against state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson in the 2nd Congressional District. He will face off against political newcomer Steve Southerland in what looks to be his first tough re-election effort. Republicans got a credible candidate in the 8th District, where former state Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster won the nod. He'll face off against controversial Democratic Freshman Alan Grayson; a "credible" candidate may be all that the GOP needs to win that race.

Establishment GOP choices emerged victorious in the 22nd and 25th District, while the 24th District is undecided as of this writing. State Representative Sandy Adams, who was a party choice but suffered from lackluster fundraising, holds a narrow lead over Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel, who was endorsed by Tom Tancredo, and who has some controversial issues in her past.

Alaska

Few gave attorney Joe Miller much of a chance against Senator Lisa Murkowski while yesterday's voting was under way. But with 84 percent of precincts reporting, he is leading by about 2,500 votes out of almost 90,000 cast.

Assuming the upset occurs - and there are thousands of ballots still to be counted - there are probably two factors at work here. First, Murkowski was a weak incumbent. Her tenure in the Senate was tainted by the way she came to power: Her father won the seat since 1980, and when he won election as governor in 2002, he appointed her to his seat. The charges of nepotism damaged Murkowski in 2004, when she found herself in a tight race against former Governor Tony Knowles. Murkowski barely won that race. Remember, the state's GOP roots are so solid that Alaskans almost re-elected Ted Stevens after he was convicted on corruption charges, and in a terrible GOP year at that.

Murkowski has also been one of the more moderate GOP Senators, compiling a voting record that placed her only slightly to the right of Senators Snowe and Collins. In a state that supported John McCain with 59 percent of the vote, a voting record such as that is bound to create problems with party activists, as Senator Bob Bennett of Utah learned earlier this year.

The other factor was undoubtedly former Governor Sarah Palin. There is no love lost between the Palins and the Murkowskis: Palin's rise was fueled by her successful primary challenge against Frank Murkowski in 2006. Throwing her weight behind Miller raised him from obscurity and cast him into the public eye; his $300,000 raised by the end of June would never have been enough to upset Murkowski absent the free media the Palin endorsement earned him. Obviously, this helps to repair Palin's reputation as a kingmaker after some recent setbacks, and, if Miller's lead holds, will create another politician who owes Palin a favor.

The victor will face Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams in the fall. McAdams has raised $9,175 to date, and seems unlikely to pose too much of a threat to Miller or Murkowski.

Vermont

In Vermont, the only race of interest was the Democratic gubernatorial primary. As of this morning, with 89 percent of precincts reporting, three candidates are knotted up within 1,000 votes of each other. State Senate President pro tempore Peter Shumlin narrowly leads former Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine by 130 votes, while Secretary of State Deb Markowitz trails Shumlin by only 920 votes. The winner will face Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie in the fall, who has led in most polling.

Arizona

The one clear defeat that grassroots conservatives suffered last night was probably their most bitter one. John McCain coasted to victory over former Representative J.D. Hayworth, 56 percent to 32 percent. McCain saw the mood of the country shift early, and shifted his stances accordingly. He became a leading critic of the Obama administration on a wide range of issues, from the stimulus to health care.

On the other hand, Hayworth proved to be a weak candidate, most notably when videotape arose showing Hayworth in an infomercial explaining how to get money from the federal government. McCain will face former Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman in November. Governor Jan Brewer handily won her primary, an astounding comeback for a politician whose political obituary was all but written earlier this year.

Republicans also selected candidates in four Congressional races. Dentist Paul Gosar upset former state Senate Majority Leader Rusty Bowers in the primary, and will face off against Representative Ann Kirkpatrick in the fall. Gosar was actually the leading fundraiser in the race, so it isn't quite as big of an upset as it seemed; activist Sidney Hay was probably the candidate with the strongest grassroots appeal. Ben Quayle, son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, won in the open 3rd District. In any other year, that race would be competitive, but this year he will probably win handily against well-financed Democratic attorney Jon Hulburd.

In the 5th District, Maricopa County Treasurer Dave Schweikert fought off a pair of grassroots challengers to earn a rematch with Congressman Harry Mitchell, who defeated Schweikert by nine points in 2008. In the 8th District, Iraq War veteran Jesse Kelly ran a successful grassroots campaign to upset establishment pick Jonathan Paton (who, in addition to being an Iraq War Veteran, was a former state senator). Kelly proved an able fundraiser, however, and his nomination probably doesn't help Representative Gabrielle Giffords that much.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma held a runoff election in two congressional districts. In the heavily Republican 5th District, quirky professor James Lankford defeated former state Representative Kevin Calvey. He will face attorney Billy Coyle in the general, where he will be heavily favored.

Veterinarian Charles Thompson won the right to take on Democratic Representative Dan Boren in the 2nd District. Thompson has no money and, on paper, would have little chance. But this is also the district where retired high school principal Virgil Cooper defeated Representative Mike Synar in the 1994 Democratic primary while spending less than $20,000. But Boren is substantially more conservative than Synar, and an upset is unlikely, unless a massive wave develops in November.

There are a number of Senate races where the GOP likely hurt its chances by nominating controversial candidates. The Nevada and Kentucky Senate races are the most obvious, and some would lump Connecticut and Colorado in there as well.

For a while, it looked as if Missouri belonged in that category. After all, Republican nominee Roy Blunt has been in Washington D.C. for decades, and, in 2008, his son Matt retired rather than run for re-election as Missouri's governor. The early polling showed Blunt in a tight race with Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, and typically showed a narrow Carnahan lead, driven by over $2 million in outside expenditures on her behalf.

But the race has begun to turn toward Blunt in recent months. As we entered the new year, Rasmussen Reports began to show a mid-single digit Blunt lead. The August PPP (D) poll showed Blunt leading by seven. Today, Rasmussen Reports shows Blunt up by 13 points, leading 54 percent to 41 percent.

Interestingly, Carnahan's numbers have been very stable since November of last year, when PPP showed her ahead 43 percent to 42 percent. In the 15 samples drawn since then, she has been at 41, 42, or 43 percent in 11 of them. Most of the variance has been in Blunt's numbers. When we see this pattern, it typically indicates that undecideds are leaning toward the candidate with the greater variance. In other words, these polls are beginning to point toward a very comfortable Blunt win. Blunt leads by 8.7 points in the RCP Average.

Two surveys released the day before Florida voters head to the polls show Kendrick Meek in control of the Democratic Senate primary while Bill McCollum and Rick Scott continue to trade leads in the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.

Congressman Meek, who a few weeks ago appeared to be in a neck-and-neck battle with businessman Jeff Greene, now looks poised to coast to the nomination tomorrow. He leads 39-29 in a Quinnipiac University poll and 51-27 in a Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll.

Though Greene led in a Quinnipiac poll in July and a Bay News 9/St. Petersburg Times poll in early August, Meek quickly regained control of a race that has been more notable for a sideshow that includes Mike Tyson, Heidi Fleiss and lurid tales of parties on Greene's boat than substantive policy debates.

Tomorrow's winner will head into a high-profile three-way race against Republican Marco Rubio and Republican-turned-Independent Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

In the volatile GOP gubernatorial primary, Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum leads 39-35 over former health industry executive Rick Scott in the Quinnipiac poll. However, he trails 47-40 in the PPP poll. The increasingly negative race has taken a toll on the favorability ratings of both candidates. According to Quinnipiac, 40 percent of GOP voters have an unfavorable view of Scott, and 37 percent have an unfavorable view of McCollum. According to PPP, McCollum has a 45 percent unfavorable rating while 33 percent of Republican voters have an unfavorable view of Scott.

The winner will face Democrat Alex Sink, Florida's Chief Financial Officer, and Independent Bud Chiles in the general election. Sink has held slim leads in several recent polls.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 771 likely Republican primary voters and 757 likely Democratic primary voters from August 21-22. The Republican poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, and the Democratic poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. PPP surveyed 304 likely Republican primary voters and 324 likely Democratic primary voters on the same days. The Republican poll has a margin of error of 5.6 percent, and the Democratic poll has a margin of error of 5.4 percent.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll continues the bad run of polling news for Senator Blanche Lincoln. The latest poll, taken of 500 likely voters on August 18, 2010, shows Congressman John Boozman (brother of the man Lincoln defeated in 1998) leading Lincoln 65-27. Boozman leads 59-31 in the RCP Average.

To put this in perspective, Rick Santorum trailed Bob Casey, Jr., by a 49-40 margin at this point in the 2006 election cycle. He picked up a point by November, when he lost 59-41.

If Lincoln does little to improve her standing in the polls, she will be in the running for the worst showing of any true Senate incumbent in history (a "true" incumbent is a non-appointee who has served a full term). Only 13 true incumbents have ever been held below 40 percent of the vote, absent a third party effort, and only three have been held below 38 percent.

Those three are:
-William Hathaway of Maine, who lost to Republican William Cohen 56.6 percent to 33.9 percent in 1978
-J. Glenn Beall of Maryland, who lost to Democrat Joseph D. Tydings 62.8 percent to 37.2 percent in 1964 (fun fact: J. Glenn Beall, Jr., is a top 10 loser, losing the same seat to Paul Sarbanes in 1976 by a 56.5 percent to 38.8 percent margin).
-Homer T. Bone of Washington, who lost to Democrat Wesley Jones 60.6 percent to 32.7 percent in 1932.

Republican Nathan Deal holds a narrow lead over Democrat Roy Barnes in the race for the Georgia governorship, according to a new InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll.

Deal, who won a fierce Republican primary over former Secretary of State Karen Handel on August 10, leads Barnes 45-41, with 5 percent going to Libertarian candidate John Monds and 9 percent remaining undecided.

InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery says independent voters may prove decisive in November. "Interestingly enough, Roy Barnes and Nathan Deal are splitting independents virtually even," said Towery. "So that's where the battleground is going to be. If one of those candidates can take control of those independent voters, then they have a good shot at winning."

Barnes is looking to reclaim his old job. He served one term as governor before being ousted by Republican Sonny Perdue in 2002. Perdue is term-limited this year.

In the Georgia Senate race, incumbent Republican Johnny Isakson holds a 47-35 lead over Democratic Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond.

InsiderAdvantage surveyed 554 registered Georgia voters on Wednesday. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.