Press Secretary Robert Gibbs just released a statement saying that President Obama will now visit Copenhagen on December 18th, not on December 9th as originally planned. See the full statement below the jump.

(more...)

President Obama's job approval rating is under 50% for the first time, according to a new poll by CNN/Opinion Research. The survey, conducted December 2-3 among 965 registered voters, pegs Obama's approval at 48%, which is a rather steep 7 point decline since CNN's last survey taken just three week ago in mid-November.

Overall, Obama's job approval rating in the RCP Average is now at an all time low of 49.3%. Likewise, those disapproving of the job President Obama is doing has reached a new high of 45.0%

On the issue of Afghanistan, there appears to be broad support for Obama's new plan for Afghanistan, though overall attitudes about Afghanistan remain decidedly fixed.

In CNN's mid-November survey, 45% favored the war in Afghanistan while 52% opposed. In the new survey, which was conducted on the two days following Obama's prime time speech at West Point on Tuesday announcing his new strategy for Afghanistan, 46% say they favor the war and 51% oppose.

Nevertheless, 62% say they favor Obama's plan for a troop surge and 66% favor his plan to start bringing those troops home in July 2011 - even though 61% don't believe conditions on the ground in Afghanistan will be good enough for Obama to stick to his timetable. Furthermore, a solid majority of 59% said it was a "bad idea" for Obama to announce a date certain for troop withdrawal on Tuesday night.

Lastly, 64% currently blame President Bush for the mess in Afghanistan. But when asked who voters would blame if the situation in Afghanistan doesn't improve by the summer of 2011, 54% say President Obama will be the one to blame.

In my story today, Dems Doing Liberalism Badly, I note that based on the latest Bureau of Labor data blue-collar laborers account for about two-thirds, 67.9 percent, all job losses in this recession. That fact, after comparing Nov. 2007 major occupation employment to the Nov. 2009 figures, forced me to do a double take. A Labor economist confirmed the math and conclusion. Indeed, two-thirds. The trend was worse than I thought, and I've been belaboring this labor issue all year.

The broadest unemployment measure is 17.2 percent today, which includes those who lost work but have stopped searching for fulltime employment. That marks a 0.3 decline since last month. We'll see if after the holiday season a turnaround holds. But to be sure, today's numbers were at least a respite from bad news.

Yet here we go, the liberal Center for American Progress actually declared this morning that the: “The Great Recession Is Over.” In strict economic terms, it's been over for awhile. Why this “mission accomplished” declaration now? Consider that the manufacturing, construction and information sectors still lost 85,000 jobs last month. Tell those men and women the Great Recession is over.

Looking back, as we know, political discourse gets so stuck in the right-left paradigm that other criticisms lose voice. No stimulus! Huge stimulus! But what we got was an ineffective stimulus. What's that about splitting the baby?

To reiterate months of reporting by many, including myself, Democrats did not target the stimulus toward those losing the bulk of the work. “No Country for Burly Men,” wrote the Weekly Standard and so followed the "He-cession's Raw Deal." We now have the largest jobless gender gap in modern American history, and it's men on the receiving end.

The hard hats were left behind. It's a trend rooted in the tension between the new and old Democrats in the late 1960s and early '70s. Those men who lost control at the hardhat riots had no idea how forgotten they would come to feel.

Word came this morning that President Obama will, in a speech Tuesday, propose new initiatives to create jobs. What can he now propose? The stimulus failed to be as big on impact as it was on spending. That fact has spoiled the public's appetite for any new big jobs bill. Expect piecemeal initiatives.

For all the comparisons to FDR when Obama came into office, Obama missed the one comparison that mattered—that old New Deal. Even fair-minded pundits tend to still give Obama the benefit of the doubt in the big picture. What could have been, I believe, will eventually partly define this president.

Reacting to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' report today showing the unemployment rate in November at 10.0% -- down 0.2 points since October -- the White House's Christina Romer, who chairs the Council of Economic Advisers, called it "the most hopeful sign yet" that employment figures were improving.

Here is Romer's full statement:
(more...)

A new Mason Dixon poll (625 RVs, MoE +/- 4%) for the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) trailing two potential GOP opponents.

General Election Matchups
Lowden 51 (+2 vs last poll, 10/6-8)
Reid 41 (+2)
Und 8 (-4)

Tarkanian 48 (unch)
Reid 42 (-1)
Und 10 (-1)

The showing should be of concern since this poll shows little movement after Reid hit the airwaves making the case for re-election. "It just shows that Reid has reached a point where people aren't listening to him anymore," Danny Tarkanian consultant Jamie Fisfis tells the Review-Journal.

Former state Republican Party chair Sue Lowden edges Tarkanian, son of the former UNLV hoops coach, in a nine-person primary (six of the candidates polled at just 1 percent or less).

Republican Primary Election Matchup
Lowden 25 (+2)
Tarkanian 24 (+3)
Angle 13 (+4)
Other 5 (+2)
Und 33 (-11)

Favorable Ratings
Reid 38 / 49
Lowden 33 / 13
Tarkanian 32 / 12

President Obama travels to Allentown, Pa., today for the first in a planned series of events meant to “take the temperature on what Americans are experiencing during these challenging economic times.” The so-called White House to Main Street tour follows Thursday's jobs summit in Washington, part of a renewed focus by the administration on reversing nagging unemployment.

In Elkhart, Ind., meanwhile, attention is focused not on Washington but Louisville, where the Recreational Vehicle Industry Trade Show is taking place. The area's economy is largely dependent on RV manufacturing, and when business nosedived as the recession began, unemployment skyrocketed. With good news emerging from the event in the form of boosted sales projections, a town that Obama has twice visited as a symbol of the national recession is increasingly optimistic that the worst is behind it.

“Things are definitely improving,” said Elkhart Mayor Dick Moore, a Democrat. “I say that we're walking out of a recession -- we're not yet running out of it, but we're walking out of it -- and probably a little bit sooner than what some economic experts had predicted.”

Obama first came to Elkhart as president in February when he kicked off his campaign to sell his proposed stimulus package. Unemployment then had risen sharply and rapidly to nearly 19 percent, the highest in the nation. When he visited the area again in August, the president said, “Elkhart has been hit with a perfect storm of economic troubles.” That second visit to announce a new Recovery Act program was meant to highlight the success of the administration's signature economic package.

Now, unemployment in Elkhart is down to 15.9 percent according to one estimate, marking slow but steady progress at a time when other areas still see increases. Moore says there's no doubt that the Recovery Act has helped, though he concedes most of those federal dollars went toward local government and not the RV industry.

“We sell our products all over this country. As people are starting to go back to work and the economy's starting to pick up, I see that as a great benefit for our area,” he said.

Locally, though, as is the case across the country, others are unconvinced that the Recovery Act has driven the rebound here.

“I don't think you can draw any causal connection between stimulus and the optimism in the local economy,” said Chris Riley, an Elkhart resident and chair of the neighboring St. Joseph County Republican Party. He, too, pointed to the recovery in the RV industry, and said that just as the area was the first to feel the effects of the recession, it is among the first to climb out.

He also credits an infrastructure program launched at the state level by Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) before Obama took office. The federal government added to deficits in funding the Recovery Act; Daniels chose to lease the state's toll road system years ago, providing billions in immediate revenue for the state that was immediately put to work in his “Major Moves” initiative.

“Everybody uses the phrase shovel-ready -- those actually were shovel-ready projects that are ongoing,” Riley said.

$131 million has been spent in Elkhart County through the state program on major roads projects, while just $52 million has been spent through the Recovery Act, the lion's share in the form of aid to local governments. The Recovery Act Web site reports that just 44 jobs created through the program in the county.

Moore, however, said the spotlight that Obama shone on his town has also been critical, and given it a platform as it seeks to diversify the local economy and draw in new businesses. In addition to personal meetings with the president, the mayor says he has a direct line to Vice President Biden's office to raise concerns and seek additional help.

Obama chose to start his new economic barnstorming tour in Allentown because, like Elkhart, it's “a place where people are really feeling some of the economic pain that's going on across the country,” White House spokesman Bill Burton said. While some criticize the trip and the jobs summit as a PR stunt, Burton countered that it's a genuine effort to “get all the ideas he can get from folks across the political spectrum” in an effort to create jobs.

Though another stop to Elkhart is not planned yet, Moore says he expects to see the president again in the near future. He also hopes to meet with him again next month when he visits Washington for a U.S. Conference of Mayors gathering.

“I'd like to tell him what I'm telling you -- a simple thank you,” Moore said. “The program's helping us out a great deal. We're also helping ourselves, but I think without the [stimulus] money it would have been a lot slower than where it is.”

We noted the Rasmussen general election matchups earlier, which showed Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) trailing each of her potential GOP foes. Now, a new poll for the Daily Kos conducted by Research 2000 shows that Lincoln may have trouble in a potential primary race against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D).

Democratic Primary Election Matchup
Lincoln 42
Halter 26
Und 32

A second question for primary voters asked how a decision by Lincoln to join "a Republican filibuster of the Democratic health care reform plan" may affect their vote. In that scenario, Lincoln's lead shrinks to 37-27 over Halter, with 36 percent undecided.

As far as the general election, Research 2000 has Lincoln leading in each matchup, unlike the Rasmussen findings. If Halter is the Democratic nominee, the races are more unsettled.

General Election Matchups
Lincoln 42 -- Baker 41
Lincoln 44 -- Coleman 39
Lincoln 45 -- Cox 31
Lincoln 46 -- Hendren 30

Baker 42 -- Halter 34
Coleman 40 -- Halter 35
Halter 36 -- Cox 32
Halter 36 -- Hendren 31

A majority of voters say they support a public option, at 53 percent. Independents support it 52-38.

Kos' take:

If Halter runs, we'll have a barn burner of a primary, and a real opportunity for progressives to strike back against one of the biggest obstructionists in the Senate, not just on health care, but on practically every issue we care about. And given Lincoln's poor general election numbers (well below the 50 percent danger marker for incumbents), we'd likely have a better chance of holding the seat with Halter, who would be more likely to consolidate Democratic support and get them to the polls, while remaining competitive among incumbent-adverse independents.

The poll was conducted among 600 likely voters from November 30-December 2, and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The margin of error in the primary subsample was 5 percent.

Former Republican Congresssman John Hostettler announced today he's launching a bid to challenge Indiana Senator Evan Bayh next year. Hostettler represented Indiana's 8th Congressional district for six terms from 1994 to 2006, eventually losing in a landslide to Democrat Brad Ellsworth.

Hostettler made the announcement in a posting on his web site which reads, in part:

And speaking of Washington, DC, in 2006, Senators Harry Reid and Evan Bayh asked voters to give them control of Congress, and America gave them what they asked for.  They've been in control of the government's purse strings and lawmaking authority for the past three years.  What do they have to show for it?  Unemployment is the highest it has been in more than a quarter century.  Bailed out Wall Street banks are paying their employees billions in bonuses; and an annual budget deficit running in the trillions of dollars.  How have Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senator Evan Bayh responded to this reality?  By doing what they always do:  blame someone else for their years of failed leadership.

And do you remember the so-called Stimulus Package that President Obama and his ally, Senator Bayh, said would create jobs?  What was their solution to the millions of Americans looking for a job?  Make-believe jobs in nonexistent congressional districts.  Americans don't have the luxury of cheering Washington, DC for creating pretend jobs.  Hoosiers need real jobs created by real companies that are not taxed and regulated to death by new big government boondoggles like government-run health care and cap and trade.  These new programs will only push jobs out of Indiana and out of the United States.

Even without these NEW programs, Harry Reid and Evan Bayh will continue to heap trillions of dollars of debt onto the backs of future generations of American taxpayers.  We can't afford to allow Harry Reid and Evan Bayh to have six more years to bankrupt our children's future and make them the virtual servants of our foreign creditors.

The United States has taken a turn toward isolationism likely unseen in the post War World II era, according to a new poll by the Pew Research Center and historic Gallup polling.

For the first time in more than four decades a plurality, 49 percent, believe the United States should “mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own,” Pew reported Thursday; only 44 percent of Americans' disagree.

Therefore, half the nation has turned inward at the very moment President Obama has ordered 30,000 more troops into the Afghan war zone.

A separate look at Gallup polling reveals how unique the Pew result is in the post-war era. Isolationism was the prevailing strain of U.S. thought following World War I. But Americans' views were reshaped with the United States rise as the world's dominate superpower following the second world war. In 1954, Gallup found that a majority, 53 percent, considered themselves an “internationalist” while only 13 percent said they were an “isolationist.”

A new Public Policy Polling (D) survey in Delaware gives Rep. Mike Castle (R) a 6-point lead over Attorney General Beau Biden (D) in the 2010 special election to fill Vice President Biden's unexpired term. That is only slightly changed from a March survey also showing Castle ahead.

General Election Matchup
Castle 45 (+1 vs. last poll, 3/5-8)
Biden 39 (+3)
Und 16 (-4)

Castle leads by 1.7 in the RCP Average for the race.

Castle has a stronger favorable rating -- 55/28 -- than Biden -- 43/35.

The Congressman, an established moderate Republican who has won a dozen statewide races in Delaware, also has a stronger hold on his own base with 79 percent of the Republican vote, compared to Biden's 65 percent draw among Democrats. Castle also leads among independent voters 52-23 percent. Asked about his ideology, 19 percent of Delawareans say Castle is too liberal, 26 percent say he's too conservative, and 55 percent say he's "just right."

“Mike Castle has more appeal to Democrats and independents than any other Republican Senate candidate in the country and that's allowing him to hold the early lead in this race,” said PPP's Dean Debnam.

President Obama's approval rating in the state is down to 53 percent, while 41 percent approve. The survey was conducted November 30-December 2 among 571 registered voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.